Gary Black Cites Tesla Executive To Say A Smaller Pickup Truck Can Boost EV Giant’s Annual Delivery Volumes, Earnings

According to Black, a smaller pickup could add 420,000 incremental units per year to Tesla deliveries with little or no cannibalization on the other EV models of the company, provided that the Cybertruck has limited consumer appeal.

Gary Black, Managing Partner at The Future Fund, on Tuesday cited Tesla’s VP of Powertrain, Lars Moravy, to say that a smaller Tesla pickup truck would be a compelling new form factor that could expand the EV giant’s total addressable market and earnings potential.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around Tesla trended in the ‘bullish’ territory, coupled with ‘high’ message volume.

The stock has over a million followers on Stocktwits, and retail chatter around it jumped 182% over the past 24 hours.

Tesla’s current vehicle lineup includes two sedans, two SUVs, and the angular pickup truck called the Cybertruck.

Over the weekend, Tesla’s VP of Powertrain, Lars Moravy, said at an event that the company had always talked about making a smaller pickup and hinted that it might make them at some point in the future. Moravy, however, did not provide more details.

According to Black’s post on X, a smaller pickup could add 420,000 incremental units per year to Tesla deliveries with little or no cannibalization on the other EV models of the company, provided that the Cybertruck has limited consumer appeal.

Black also opined that a small pickup priced around $50,000 would add incremental earnings of $0.85 per share to company earnings.

The Cybertruck is Tesla’s latest addition to its vehicle lineup. The vehicle has a starting price of $69,990 in the U.S., making it a more expensive choice. The more premium Cyberbeast variant of the truck is priced at $99,990.

In the three months through the end of June, Tesla sold 10,394 units of the Model S, X, and the Cybertruck put together. The more premium offerings accounted for only 2.7% of the company’s overall deliveries in the period, implying that the Cybertruck alone accounted for even less.

As per Black, the Cybertruck is "too big, too expensive, and impractical" for most customers who want pickups.

Earlier this month, Tesla said that its plans for new vehicles that will launch in 2025 remain on track, and that it started initial production of a new affordable model in June. Volume production of the affordable vehicle is planned for the second half of 2025. More details regarding the vehicle are not known, including its form factor.

Investors are looking at the affordable model to drive up EV deliveries for the company. Tesla reported deliveries of 384,122 units in the second quarter, marking a 13.5% year-over-year decline and the second consecutive quarter of declining deliveries.

TSLA stock is down by 21% this year but up by about 38% over the past 12 months. 

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