Fund Manager Flags Concerns About Tesla’s Dwindling Delivery Numbers, Notes High P/E Ratio

While Tesla isn’t just a car company with investments into artificial intelligence, vehicle autonomy and robotics, EVs still make up over 70% of the company’s profits, Black noted.

• In the fourth quarter of 2025, Tesla reported 418,227 vehicle deliveries, marking a near 16% drop from the corresponding quarter of 2024 and falling below Wall Street expectations.
• Tesla is slated to announce its earnings for the quarter on Jan 28.
• Analysts on average expect the company to report Q4 revenue of $24.80 billion, below the $25.71 billion reported in the corresponding quarter of 2024.

The Future Fund LLC managing partner Gary Black on Tuesday flagged concerns about the impact of Tesla Inc.’s (TSLA) dwindling electric vehicle (EV) delivery numbers on the company’s share price.

“$TSLA can’t trade at a 200x+ forward P/E if EV sales continue to decline,” Black said in a post on X. While Tesla isn’t just a car company with investments into artificial intelligence, vehicle autonomy and robotics, EVs still make up over 70% of the company’s profits, Black noted.

“Meanwhile both near-term 2026 and long-term 2030 Adj EPS estimates continue to decline,” Black wrote.

Tesla’s Falling Delivery Numbers

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Tesla reported 418,227 vehicle deliveries, marking a near 16% drop from the corresponding quarter of 2024, and falling below Wall Street expectations.

For the full year, deliveries came in at 1.64 million vehicles globally in 2025, marking the second straight year of decline.

Earnings Estimates

Tesla is slated to announce its earnings for the fourth quarter (Q4) on Jan 28.

Analysts on average expect the company to report Q4 revenue of $24.80 billion, below the $25.71 billion reported in the corresponding quarter of 2024.

Adjusted earnings per share, meanwhile, is expected to come in at $0.44, below the $0.73 recorded in Q4 2024.

Will Black Short Tesla?

While Black has often flagged concerns about Tesla’s high price-to-earnings ratio, he noted earlier this month that he would not short it.

“We short stocks with businesses facing secular demand decline or permanent market share loss and where we perceive the company lacks the tech, brand, distribution, or management depth to turn it around,” Black said. “We won’t short a company just because it looks expensive - instead we just won’t own it.”

He further noted that Tesla is “too good a company in a thriving business.”

How Did Stocktwits Users React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around TSLA stayed within the ‘bearish’ territory over the past 24 hours, while message volume fell from ‘high’ to ‘normal’ levels.

TSLA stock has gained 11% over the past 12 months. 

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