Ethereum Logs Smallest Year-To-Date Loss Since January As Rally Runs On Thin Leverage

Analyst Ted Pillows sees $2,800 as a key level for Ethereum, saying a weekly close above it could confirm further upside.

• Ethereum’s year-to- date loss narrowed to about 7%, its smallest weekly decline since January.
• Futures open interest remains well below last year’s peak, at about $14 billion.
• U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw nearly $93 million in net outflows in October.

Ethereum's (ETH) recovery is gaining ground without the heavy derivatives leverage that accompanied its previous peaks, giving the latest rally a notably different setup.

ETH has narrowed its 2026 loss to about 7% after falling nearly 47% at its June low, while futures open interest remains well below last year's peak. Traders are now watching the $2,800 area for evidence that the rebound can turn into another leg higher.

Ethereum Cuts 2026 Loss After Nearly 47% Drawdown

The second largest cryptocurrency started the year strong but slipped into losses in late January. By early June, it was down nearly half for the year, about 47%. It has climbed back since. On a weekly close, Ethereum is now down about 7%. This makes it the smallest drop in close to nine months. 

Ethereum's price was trading at $2,700, up 0.6% in the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around Ethereum improved to ‘neutral’ from the ‘bearish’ zone, accompanied by ‘normal’ chatter levels over the past day.

What stands out currently is that it is driving the recovery, as few traders are borrowing to bet on Ethereum.

ETH Rally Comes With Lesser Leverage 

What stands out about this rally is the limited use of leverage behind the move. 

Futures open interest across exchanges stood near $14 billion, according to CryptoQuant data. That is less than half of the roughly $33 billion seen in September last year, when ETH traded near $4,800. Open interest measures the value of futures contracts still open. A low reading, therefore, points to fewer leverage bets behind the price.

The gap has widened since June. The data also showed that open interest rose from around $9 billion and has climbed to $14 billion. In past rallies, the two rose together. The pattern suggests buyers in the spot market, rather than leveraged traders, behind the price uptick.

ETF buyers have also stepped back in October. Spot US Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of nearly $93 million in this month itself, following a period of inflows in late September.

Why $2,800 Matters For ETH 

The next test for Ethereum is on its technical charts. Crypto analyst Ted Pillow said that Ethereum "closed its highest weekly candle in 8+ months." He said the token needs a weekly close above $2,800 with spot demand. If it gets that, the analyst said it would rally towards.

Adding to that pressure, an Ethereum initial coin offering (ICO) participant sold another 13,330 ETH worth around $37 million after 6 months of holding, according to on-chain data. The wallet bought 170,000 ETH through the ICO at about $0.31 each, the stake cost $52,700 at the time and would be worth $461 million at current Ethereum prices, according to Arkham data.

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