ETH In July, Q3, And H2

July’s track record says Ethereum either fires the starting gun for a late-summer rally or hands out clearance prices you’ll regret ignoring.

The following is a breakdown of how Ethereum (ETH) has historically performed in the month of July, Q3 and the second half of a year. 

Ethereum in July

Historical Averages

• Avg increase when green: 41%
• Avg decrease when red: -12%
• Overall July change: 5.5%
• Three green out of nine (33%). When it runs, it sprints. When it trips, it merely scuffs a knee.
• Ninth-best month on Ethereum’s scorecard.

ETH In Q3 - “Green Half The Time, Bloodbath The Rest"

• Overall average: 1%
• Avg gain when green: 26%
• Avg loss when red: -31%
• Win rate: 5 of 9 (56%).
• Best Q3: 2020 (+59%) - yield-farm mania.
• Worst Q3: 2018 (-48.5%) - crypto winter kicked in early.

Fun stat: July’s color matched Q3’s outcome seven of nine times. Decent barometer.

ETH In The Second Half 

• Overall average: 35.5%
• Avg gain when green: 97%
• Avg loss when red: -41%
• Win rate: 5 of 9 (56%).
• Peak H2: 2020 (+247% after compounding DeFi mania).
• Ugliest H2: 2018 (-74%). That one still hurts.

Stuff You Didn’t Know

July’s three-year green streak (2020-2022) was the longest in ETH history. 2023 broke it with a sleepy -4%.

Big protocol milestones juice July: 2020’s yield-farm frenzy, 2021’s EIP-1559 buzz, 2022’s Merge countdown.

Nasty June prints (≤ -15%) have preceded double-digit July rebounds twice. Keep one eye on summer’s opening act.

July’s upside beats its downside by over 3-to-1. Risk takers get paid, but bring a helmet.

Practical Takeaways

Watch July’s close. It has nailed Q3’s vibe 78 % of the time.

Green July? Trail those stops - H2 upside averages a face-melting 97% when it stays green.

Red July? Don’t rage-quit. Later-year upgrades (Devcon chatter, fork finals) often bail ETH out.

Liquidity fades in August. July’s your last real swing-trade window before beach season lulls the order books.

There is a very real chance that Ethereum loses it's place as the second most valuable cryptocurrency to its peers. That is not to say one crypto will take over the entire market cap size, rather several other competitors will take over the various use cases ETH currently has in the blockchain space. 

Ethereum’s historical data range for this analysis, April 2016 - June, 2025.<

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<