CRWV, NBIS, NVDA Jump Overnight: Musk Says SpaceX Could Rent Compute ‘Several Times Over,’ Analyst Dismisses Glut Fears

Analyst Gene Munster called compute oversupply fears “off base,” highlighting profitable growth in SpaceX’s Super Intelligence business.

• Musk said SpaceX could rent out its compute “several times over,” speaking about relentless customer demand and difficulty finding spare capacity.
• ARK analyst Brett Winton flagged rising contract renewals as bullish for providers able to deploy GPUs quickly.
• Musk outlined 13 GW of compute by year-end 2027, above ARK’s forecast of less than 8 GW.

CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius (NBIS) and major AI infrastructure stocks climbed overnight late Tuesday as SpaceX’s strong compute demand prompted analysts to challenge oversupply fears and highlight rising rental rates and a faster-than-expected capacity expansion.

CRWV rose 5% and NBIS climbed 6% overnight, while Nvidia (NVDA) and ASML (ASML) each gained 2% and Intel (INTC) advanced 4%.

SpaceX’s Compute Demand Runs Ahead Of Supply

“We are also, frankly, hounded relentlessly by every hyperscaler and by dozens of smaller companies to rent more of our compute,” Musk said on the latest SpaceX earnings call. “We could rent out our compute several times over if we said yes to everyone.”

SpaceX has encountered the shortage itself. Musk said efforts to shift inference workloads elsewhere and free up capacity for training hit the same wall across GB300s, GB200s, TPUs, Trainiums and older H100s: no availability. He compared the search to Monty Python’s cheese-shop sketch — a shop with plenty of varieties to ask for, but no cheese to sell. “It is ridiculous. I do not think we are going to have a demand issue here,” Musk said.

The strong demand outlook lifted shares of AI cloud providers such as CoreWeave and Nebius, which rent GPU computing capacity to customers.

SpaceX’s Compute Outlook Gives Neocloud Bulls Fresh Fodder

Deepwater Asset Management managing partner Gene Munster said SpaceX’s Super Intelligence business beat expectations by 17%, calling the results good news for neoclouds. “This is profitable revenue and a sign that the narrative that we have oversupply of compute is off base,” he said.

The segment generated $7.6 billion in third-quarter (Q3) revenue, about 52% of SpaceX’s $14.6 billion total, compared with 33% in the June quarter, Munster noted. CFO Bret Johnsen said SI solutions and infrastructure revenue grew 192% sequentially even excluding the Cursor acquisition.

Munster also said investors underappreciate the business helping finance SpaceX’s connectivity and launch ambitions. “Super Intelligence business (compute) doesn't get the love it deserves from many investors because it's seen as not as sexy as the other segments,” he said.

ARK Sees Bullish Sign In Compute Contract Renewals

Musk said the shortage was supporting prices even for older hardware. “That is why you see things like even old computers, like the H100s, renting for more than they rented when they were new,” he said.

SpaceX favors short contracts at effectively spot-market rates, betting that better AI software will increase the value generated from its compute. “We see them renewing at higher dollars per watt, not lower dollars per watt,” Musk said.

Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management chief futurist Brett Winton highlighted the implications for providers able to switch on capacity quickly. “Elon's commentary also suggests that renewals on the same chips are increasing year over year,” he said. “This is bullish for anyone that can actually attach a gpu to power in as little a time as possible.”

Johnsen said pricing was slightly above the high end of the previously discussed $30 to $30-per-watt range, with new deployments paying back in less than a year. Winton said contracts tracking above $50 billion per gigawatt exceeded ARK’s model, while noting potential customer concentration.

Musk suggested returns could improve further: “I am not saying this will happen; it is not impossible that we will have a six-month payback period for compute next year.”

SpaceX Capacity Plans Outrun ARK’s Forecast

SpaceX ended September with 1.7 gigawatts of nameplate compute capacity and expects 2.5 to 3 GW by year-end. Musk expressed high confidence in adding another 10 GW during 2027. “I would be surprised if we brought on less than 13 gigawatts of compute by the end of next year,” he said.

This exceeds ARK’s forecast of slightly less than 8 GW, Winton said. Reaching 3 GW this year would also surpass its 2.1-GW expectation, he noted. “This is quite positive,” Winton said. “At the margin I was somewhat expecting cautionary commentary on GWs delivered given on-the-ground complications.”

Musk also outlined an aim for 20 GW of additional power and cooling infrastructure next year, while presenting more than 20 GW of active compute in 2027 as a smaller possibility. Winton separately said reaching 20 GW of compute by the end of 2028 could offer a credible catch-up path to frontier AI competitors; ARK had expected that milestone around early 2030.

The expansion comes after $19.6 billion of capital spending in Q3. Munster said the plans suggested 2027 spending above the Street’s $162 billion expectation.

Niles: SpaceX Could Help Spark Next AI Rally

Niles Investment Management founder Dan Niles pointed to SpaceX’s earnings beat and aggressive spending outlook as reasons for growing confidence in a near-term AI rebound. “My conviction of a near-term AI rally continues to grow,” he said on X.

SpaceX forecast first-quarter revenue of $33 billion to $37 billion and fourth-quarter capital spending of $35 billion to $40 billion. Niles put those outlooks 57% and nearly 90% above consensus, respectively.

He argued that the AI infrastructure trade looked oversold even while acknowledging neocloud funding challenges, slowing revenue growth at OpenAI and Anthropic, and bipartisan opposition to data centers. “Maybe the SpaceX earnings and Super Micro positive pre-announcement [preliminary q1 sales update] today are the trigger to start the next AI related rally regardless of whether we have seen THE TOP or not.”

SpaceX’s Chip Ambitions Put Suppliers In Spotlight

Musk said SpaceX was tracking to bring 200,000 Nvidia GB300s online monthly through year-end, with next year’s deployments increasingly focused on Vera Rubin. A training cluster would contain 440,000 Vera Rubin computers by the end of Q2 2027.

Winton said that SpaceX’s ability to power and deploy chips quickly makes it a more reliable Nvidia customer. Musk identified power, cooling and infrastructure as bigger constraints than chips.

Intel and ASML connect through Terafab. Intel is a strategic partner in the project, which Musk said aims for a functional test chip around May or June 2027 and volume production in the second half of 2028. 

“Now, these are very aggressive dates, and we're very appreciative of ASML and all of our other suppliers in accelerating equipment deliveries in order to achieve this outcome,” Musk said, while cautioning that the schedule carried substantial uncertainty.

Grok Bot Adds Fuel To SpaceX’s Compute Expansion

Musk said Grok Bot could eventually use most of SpaceX’s compute, adding another source of demand alongside external customers. “I've never seen anything grow this fast,” he said.

President and COO Gwynne Shotwell said Grok Bot had hit 800,000 paid weekly users earlier this month, more than doubling over the previous month. Munster projected 50 million daily users within six months, versus his estimate of 5 million currently.

Musk linked the expansion to potential annual recurring revenue of $500 billion to $1 trillion by the end of 2027. Winton said the upper end represented upside from monetizing Grok Bot rather than simply renting infrastructure. “You don't need to make wild assumptions about AI software monetization in order to make that ARR forecast work,” he said.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About AI Infrastructure Stocks?

On Stocktwits, CRWV and NBIS drew ‘extremely bullish’ retail sentiment amid ‘extremely high’ message volume, while INTC and NVDA saw ‘bullish’ sentiment on ‘normal’ volume. ASML’s sentiment was ‘neutral’, also amid ‘normal’ message volume.

INTC leads the group with a 148% gain so far this year, followed by NBIS at 105%, ASML at 53% and NVDA at 16%, while CRWV has fallen 13%.

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