CRCL Stock Is Down 33% In The Last Year — Why Cathie Wood Is Still Calling It A 'Disrupter’

Cathie Wood, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Ark Invest, noted in a post on X that Circle’s one-year performance “illustrates the inefficiency of public equity markets in the short term.”

• CRCL stock is down more than 33% in the last year, significantly underperforming Visa and Mastercard. 
• However, it is up nearly 24% in the past month, compared to V stock’s increase of about 4.5% and MA stock’s gains of nearly 8%. 
• Alex Obchakevich, partner at Artemis and Oobit, said last week in a post on X that Circle’s thesis is changing from both ends, with it no longer being just a rates trade, after its federal trust bank charter, Q2 return to profit, and doubling of transaction revenue. 

Financial technology company Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) stock has declined significantly in the last year. 

CRCL stock is down more than 33%, significantly underperforming Visa Inc. (V) and Mastercard Inc. (MA) in the same period. MA stock is down about 1% in the same period, while V stock is up nearly 9%. 

Yet, some Wall Street analysts believe that the short-term performance of the internet stock does not do it justice. 

What’s Wall Street Saying About CRCL Stock?

Cathie Wood, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Ark Invest, shared a post from another market participant on X, noting that Circle’s one-year performance “illustrates the inefficiency of public equity markets in the short term.”  

“Many financial services analysts have built their long-term track records off of $V and $MA and cannot fathom Circle, the disrupter,” she said. 

As of Aug. 24, ARK Invest has a combined holding of $345.71 million in CRCL stock, comprising a 5.21% weight in its total portfolio. 

Wood reshared a post from Alex Obchakevich, partner at Artemis and Oobit, who outlined on X last week that the performance of the V, MA, and CRCL stocks when compared over the past year and the last month might look like “noise,” but when read slowly, it says more about the market changing its mind about the stablecoins space. 

CRCL stock has zoomed past its peers over the past month, surging nearly 24%, compared to V stock’s increase of about 4.5% and MA stock’s gains of nearly 8%. 

Obchakevich said that Circle’s thesis is changing from both ends. It is no longer just a rates trade; with its federal trust bank charter, second-quarter (Q2) return to profit, and transaction revenue doubling, the rally looks less like “a discovery” and more like “a correction of an overdone funeral.”

Meanwhile, Mastercard’s $1.8 billion BVNK acquisition shows traditional networks are moving into stablecoins themselves, Obchakevich said. With $33 trillion in stablecoin transfers last year, up 72%, and AI agents bypassing interchange fees, the disruption is becoming harder to ignore.

“So the divergence in the table isn't old rails versus new rails. It's a market splitting one bet into three - distribution, issuance, and the consortium coin that could squeeze both. The premium for standing still just stopped being free,” Obchakevich said. 

Circle’s Q2 Snapshot

Earlier this month, the company reported Q2 revenue and reserve income of $701.3 million, up 6.6% year over year, while diluted earnings per share came in at $0.18 after it swung to a net income of $48.2 million from a loss a year earlier. 

USDC (USD Coin) circulation increased 19% year-over-year to $73.3 billion. Circle also significantly raised its outlook for full-year “other revenue,” doubling the guidance range to $310 million–$330 million from the previous $150 million–$170 million.

What’s Retail Saying About CRCL, V, MA Stocks?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around CRCL stock has improved from ‘bullish’ to ‘extremely bullish’ over 24 hours, even as message volumes have surged more than 54% in the same time, according to platform data. 

Meanwhile, sentiment for V stock was ‘bearish’ and for MA stock was ‘bullish’ at the time of writing. 

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