Michael Burry Says Nvidia Q2 Earnings Will Be 'Lights Out' And '100% Of Announced Revenue Is Circular'

Burry warned that the earnings hype could indicate that most FOMO-driven buyers are already invested.

• Burry said “roughly 100%” of chipmakers’ announced revenue is circular, citing the BIS.
• Nvidia’s revenue is expected to more than double from a year ago to $92 billion.
• Wall Street remains bullish, with analyst targets implying 23% to 56% upside.

“The Big Short” investor Michael Burry expects Nvidia (NVDA) to deliver a blowout quarterly result on Wednesday, even as he continues betting against the chipmaker over circular financing, concentrated spending and excessive AI hype.

NVDA stock is up 7% so far this month, on track for its best month since April. 

Nvidia Faces Blockbuster Q2 Earnings Test

Nvidia will report its second-quarter results after Wednesday’s closing bell. When asked on Substack about Nvidia’s upcoming earnings and their significance for the semiconductor pullback, Burry replied: “They will be lights out and accompanied by the kind of hype that tells you FOMO has almost all the people that would buy it already in it.”

In a separate conversation about Nvidia’s exposure to OpenAI and CoreWeave, Burry said: “At the chip makers, roughly 100% of announced revenue is circular. That’s per the BIS [Bank for International Settlements].”

According to Fiscal.ai, Nvidia’s revenue is expected to more than double from a year earlier to $91.48 billion, with adjusted earnings rising to $2.07 per share. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) are projected to more than double to $61.83 billion. Sequentially, revenue is projected to grow nearly 13% to $92.07 billion and adjusted earnings to increase almost 12% to $2.09 per share, and EBITDA is forecast to rise 13% to $61.99 billion, per Koyfin.

Burry Questions AI’s Financial Foundations

Burry has repeatedly said chipmakers, cloud providers, and AI companies are increasingly investing in, financing, or guaranteeing business for one another, creating circular flows that can make demand appear stronger and more independent than it is.

His thesis also focuses on Nvidia’s reliance on a small group of hyperscale customers, including Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet. Burry argues that a material spending reduction by even one major customer could significantly affect Nvidia’s revenue.

In May, he highlighted $182 billion in non-cancellable supply commitments, exceeding Nvidia’s annual operating cash flow. Burry also contends that AI chips lose economic value faster than the accounting depreciation schedules used by hyperscalers and specialized cloud providers suggest. New generations of hardware can quickly make older systems less competitive, potentially limiting customers’ ability to recover their investments.

Burry Extends Nvidia Bearish Bets

Burry has maintained and expanded his bearish Nvidia positions throughout this year despite expecting strong near-term results. In early June, he adjusted several put positions extending into 2027. Even last month, Burry reiterated concerns about hyperscaler spending, chip depreciation, and the gap between announced and deployed AI capacity.

Earlier this month, Burry rolled part of his December 2026 Nvidia puts into June 2027 contracts while maintaining strikes in the low-$100 range. He also added to the December 2026 and June 2027 positions.

Wall Street Sees Strong NVDA Quarter

Wall Street remains mostly bullish, pointing to sustained generative-AI demand, Nvidia’s strong access to chip supply and upcoming product launches.

Benchmark expects the October-quarter outlook, early Vera Rubin deployments and gross-margin trajectory to matter more than a modest earnings beat or miss. RBC Capital sees another “strong quarter,” driven by AI demand, the Rubin ramp and a potential 50%-plus increase in average selling prices. Oppenheimer expects Blackwell Ultra, VR200 and potential China accelerator sales to drive further upside.

The firms’ price targets imply about 23% to 56% upside from Nvidia’s current market price. Meanwhile, Koyfin’s average target represents about 42% upside. Of the 62 analysts covering Nvidia, 10 rate it ‘Strong Buy,’ 49 recommend ‘Buy,’ two say ‘Hold,’ and one rates it ‘Sell.’ None have a ‘Strong Sell’ rating.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About NVDA?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for NVDA has been ‘bearish’ over the past week amid a 3% rise in 24-hour message volumes.

One user said, “$NVDA earnings boost next week; we might expect a big surge. Let's buy shares on Monday.”

View this Stocktwits post

Another user said, “$NVDA earnings last November collapsed the market, expecting the same to happen this week as people hate ai and hate data centers even more.”

View this Stocktwits post

Nvidia is the best-performing “Magnificent Seven” stock this year, with shares up 15% year to date. 

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