CNC, OSCR Stocks Rally After Baird Calls Risk Adjustment Results Favorable

Baird said the outcomes from the final 2025 healthcare exchange risk adjustment transfers support Centene’s prior Q4 commentary and align directionally with Oscar’s comments at a June investor conference.

• Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services released the final 2025 numbers for its risk adjustment program on Tuesday.
• For Molina, the firm sees a minor negative impact.
• Baird estimates that Molina faces an additional $11.2 million in payments beyond what it had already set aside.

Shares of Centene (CNC) and Oscar Health (OSCR) closed 6% and 12% higher, respectively, on Wednesday following a note from Baird that the latest government risk adjustment settlement came in better than expected for both companies.

Baird said the outcomes from the final 2025 healthcare exchange risk adjustment transfers support Centene’s prior Q4 commentary and align directionally with Oscar’s comments at a June investor conference. For Molina, the firm sees only a minor negative impact.

Shares of Molina (MOH) closed 2% higher on Wednesday.

What The Latest CMS Report Showed?

On June 30, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services released the final 2025 numbers for its risk adjustment program.

This program shifts money between health insurers in the individual market. Insurers whose customers are sicker than average receive payments from those whose customers are healthier and these payouts can swing insurers’ earnings.

The June 30 report gave the final settlement using complete yearly data. Baird estimates that Molina faces an additional $11.2 million in payments beyond what it had already set aside.

As for Centene, the company had already taken a large negative adjustment earlier in 2025 based on preliminary data, revising its expected headwind to roughly $2.4 billion pretax for the full year. Oscar, meanwhile, increased its risk adjustment payable accrual by about $275 million because its members appeared healthier than the broader market average in its Q4 2025 earnings.

How Did Retail Traders React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around CNC, MOH, and OSCR stayed within the ‘neutral’ territory at the time of writing.

According to data from Koyfin, CNC has a 12-month average price target of $61.83, representing a potential downside of about 10% from the last closing price, while OSCR has an average price target of $22.60, implying a potential downside of 29%.

While CNC has gained 66% year-to-date, OSCR has added 122%. 

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