CF Stock Has Gained Over 20% Since The Start Of The US-Iran-Israel Conflict – Here’s Why Analysts See Further Upside

Analysts say CF is likely to benefit from rising LNG prices, which increase the cost of producing nitrogen fertilizers.

• Barclays said the Middle East conflict could push nitrogen prices higher through at least the first half of 2026, boosting North American producers like CF.
• Urea Granular FOB Middle East futures have surged more than 34% since the conflict began on Feb. 28, 2026.
• CF stock has outperformed peers Mosaic and LSB Industries this month.

CF Industries (CF) has emerged as one of the market’s biggest winners in recent weeks, with the fertilizer producer rallying more than 20% this month as the escalating Middle East conflict involving the U.S. triggered a sharp surge in global urea prices and tightened the global fertilizer supply chain.

CF shares were trading up around 4% in pre-market trading on Thursday, having closed more than 9% higher in the previous session. 

Among CF’s peers, CVR Partners (UAN) stock has soared 28%, while shares of Mosaic (MOS) and LSB Industries (LXU) have climbed 4% and 16%, since the start of the conflict.

CF Industries, the world’s largest producer of ammonia, converts it into products such as urea, urea ammonium nitrate, ammonium nitrate, and diesel exhaust fluid.

Analysts See Upside As Supply Chain Disruption Raises Fertilizer Costs

Last week, Barclays analyst Benjamin Theurer raised CF’s price target to $120 from $100 and maintained an ‘Overweight’ rating, according to The Fly. The brokerage said the conflict could push nitrogen prices higher through at least the first half of 2026, creating additional upside for North American producers.

According to a Barron’s report earlier this week, Mizuho expects CF to benefit as “scarcity will drive near-term fertilizer prices up.”

RBC Capital Markets noted that the Middle East accounts for roughly 35% to 40% of global urea fertilizer exports - an even larger share than the region’s contribution to global crude oil exports. At the same time, rising LNG prices have increased the cost of producing nitrogen fertilizer, a trend that could further benefit CF.

Meanwhile, Urea Granular FOB Middle East futures have surged more than 34% since the conflict began on Feb. 28, 2026.

How Did Stocktwits Users React?

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits has remained in the ‘extremely bullish’ territory for a week, amid ‘high’ message volumes.

One user highlighted the effects of supply disruption, adding that increasing fertilizer prices could “flow into farming costs months later, not immediately like oil.”

Another user expects the stock to climb up to $152, implying a 36% upside from its last closing price.

Year-to-date, CF shares have gained around 62%.

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