CAVA Vs CMG: Which Fast Casual Chain Stock Has More Upside On Wall Street?

Strong guidance and surging demand for high-protein, healthy meals lift Cava — but margin pressure and value-conscious consumers keep the battle tight.

• Cava CEO Brett Schulman said that as guests become more intentional with their spend, they are choosing brands like Cava.
• The company forecast 2026 same-restaurant sales to rise between 3% and 5%, above LSEG's estimate of a 3.16% jump, according to Reuters.
• Cava Group has a consensus rating of ‘Buy,’ according to Koyfin, with 15 out of the 24 analysts covering Cava rating it ‘Buy’ or higher.

Cava Group’s better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and a forecast that beat Wall Street estimates have put the focus on increasing demand for protein-based offerings at fast-casual restaurants, including larger rival Chipotle Mexican Grill.

Demand for burritos and salads continues to grow as more Americans turn to healthy food options, boosting revenue growth for companies such as Cava and Chipotle. But both companies are battling a margin squeeze tied to tariff-related price hikes and higher commodity costs.

CAVA Vs CMG: What Are Executives Saying?

Cava CEO Brett Schulman said that as guests become more intentional with their spend, they are choosing brands like Cava that deliver real differentiation through bold flavors and healthy food.

“With the new year just beginning and many guests leaning into healthier choices, we're meeting that moment with menu innovation rooted in both flavor and purpose,” Schulman said during the company’s earnings call on Tuesday.

The company forecast 2026 same-restaurant sales to rise between 3% and 5%, above LSEG's estimate of a 3.16% jump, according to Reuters.

In early February, Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright said the company’s focus is now on accelerating innovation for new offerings and occasions that are increasingly important to the chain’s guests.

“As we move into 2026, the consumer landscape is shifting with a heightened focus on value as well as high-quality protein, fiber, and clean ingredients,” Boatwright said during a post-earnings call earlier in the month. He noted that early results from introducing the “High Protein Menu” are strong.

Analyst Ratings: Which Stock Has More Upside?

Cava Group has a consensus rating of ‘Buy,’ according to Koyfin. 15 out of the 24 analysts covering Cava rate it ‘Buy’ or higher and nine analysts have a ‘Hold’ rating. The stock’s average price target on Wall Street is $73.38, implying an 8.2% upside from its last closing price of $67.80.

On Monday, Truist analyst Jake Bartlett raised the firm's price target on Cava Group to $80 from $78, according to TheFly. The firm noted that the company was well-positioned for earnings as the Truist Card Data suggested a sharp sales acceleration in Q1-to-date, despite weather headwinds, driven by a firming in 'underlying' restaurant demand, successful menu innovation and marketing, and improved operations.

Wall Street has a consensus ‘Strong Buy’ rating on Chipotle, according to Koyfin, with 26 out of the 38 analysts covering the stock rating it ‘Buy’ or higher and 12 rating it ‘Hold.’ The average price target was $44.32, implying a 22% upside from Thursday’s closing price of $36.49.

In early February, Guggenheim lowered the firm's price target on Chipotle to $36 from $37 and noted that management at the burrito chain laid out conservative flat same-store sales guidance for 2026 and provided a framework for margin reinvestment.

How Are Stocktwits Users Reacting?

Retail sentiment on Cava jumped to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘bullish’ territory a day ago, with message volumes at ‘extremely high’ levels, according to data from Stocktwits.

A user on Stocktwits noted that Cava’s offerings were much better than Chipotle’s.

Chipotle’s retail sentiment remained unchanged in the ‘bearish’ territory, with message volumes at ‘extremely low’ levels.

Shares of Cava declined more than 31% in the last 12 months, while Chipotle’s stock fell nearly 32% during the same period.

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