Can Microsoft Out-AI OpenAI And Anthropic? SemiAnalysis Says Yes, Points To $100B-Per-GW Inference Opportunity

Microsoft is in a comfortable position to gain as AI inference demand booms, challenging frontier AI labs.

• Microsoft could become SpaceX’s largest customer, having already signed more than 10GW of data-center contracts worth roughly $300 billion this year.
• SpaceX could deploy 10GW or more of new data-center capacity by the end of 2027, potentially generating about $300 billion in annual recurring revenue.
• MSFT and SPCX stocks have climbed sharply since their recent earnings reports.

AI inference could bring $100 billion in sales per gigawatt per year to AI companies, and Microsoft is well positioned to match up giant Anthropic and OpenAI, according to an analysis by semiconductor news site SemiAnalysis.

Based on proprietary models, the report estimates that frontier AI companies can generate more than $100 billion in annual revenue, highlighting the economics behind the rush to secure compute. 

AI inference is the process of running a trained AI model in the cloud to generate responses, predictions, or outputs for users in real time.

Microsoft vs OpenAI And Anthropic

Beyond OpenAI and Anthropic, Microsoft is capable of printing such economics per GW. “Having full access to OpenAI models, they can generate the same revenue and margin per MW, while paying none of the training costs,” SemiAnalysis wrote.

“Satya [Nadella] nailed the negotiations with OpenAI: the deal reworked in April 2026 dropped the old 20% revenue share from the equation. Put simply, Microsoft has a giant incentive to procure as many MWs as possible, as fast as possible.”

While much of Microsoft’s data-center capacity currently goes to OpenAI, it has the opportunity to improve that mix, with the potential for Microsoft Azure accelerating its revenue growth from about 42% year over year currently to over 100% by next year.

Microsoft is already preparing for a significant data center ramp-up. The second-biggest cloud company signed 10GW of contracts year-to-date, for over $300B of total contract value. SemiAnalysis expects much more to be signed for capacity that would come online over the next two years.

Even SpaceX is emerging as a strong challenger in the compute market. CEO Elon Musk said during SpaceX’s first earnings report that the company “conservatively” expects to build and deliver an additional 6GW to 8GW of capacity next year, with the potential to exceed 10GW. SemiAnalysis said its analysis of potential sites, power equipment and construction timelines suggests the target is achievable.

SpaceX’s Push In Cloud Market

SemiAnalysis estimates SpaceX could reach about $300 billion in ARR even if only half of its incremental 2027 capacity is monetized, with the remainder used by xAI and Cursor for training.

SpaceX’s ability to build data centers rapidly could give it an advantage as AI companies face severe shortages of power and compute. The company built the 300MW Colossus 1 facility in 122 days, while its Southaven power plant expanded from 495MW in February to 1.7GW in July, the report said.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was ‘neutral’ for MSFT and ‘bullish’ for SpaceX on Monday. MSFT stock has gained over 28% since its earnings report on July 20, while SPCX has climbed 15.5% since its report on Aug 12.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<