Bitcoin On Track To Post Weakest October In Six Years As US Buyers Retreat Ahead Of Fed Decision

Inflation risks could complicate the outlook for Bitcoin, with crude oil above $100 a barrel since early October, the Federal Reserve's rate decision, and the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections as potential macro factors.

• Bitcoin traded around $80,800 on Wednesday, down over 4% in October, putting the cryptocurrency on track for its weakest October in six years.
• Bitcoin spot demand has also remained negative since Oct. 14, while short-term holders' profit buffer narrowed.
• CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index fell from 90 to 60, meaning that a bullish phase remains but is currently cooling.

Bitcoin (BTC) is bracing for its weakest October in six years as U.S. investors retreat from the market ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision later on Wednesday.

The cryptocurrency traded around $80,800 on Wednesday morning. It was down 4.2% for the month. Bitcoin closed September at $83,567 and fell to $80,051 by Oct. 28. That's up from an average October gain of 18.1% since 2020. Bitcoin also lost 3.8% in October 2025. Another drop will make it the weakest October in six years.

US Buyers Remain On Sidelines

Coinbase Premium has not had a positive day this October, CryptoQuant said in a post on X Tuesday. The index measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and offshore exchanges. A negative reading means U.S. buyers are paying less than buyers abroad, a sign of soft demand.

The premium dropped to -0.146 on Oct. 24, the lowest since June 30, the firm said in a report on Tuesday. Its October average of -0.093 is three times that of September. Spot demand overall has also been negative every day since Oct. 14, the report said. New buyers are taking in coins slower than miners are creating them.

Traders' Profit Buffer Narrows: Key Level Is At $80,000

CryptoQuant said short-term traders have lost most of the buffer. Bitcoin traded 8.1% above the realized price on Oct. 26. That metric measures the average price of coins that have been held between one and three months, and stands at $74,041. The gap was 33.4% on Sept. 22.

CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index, which aggregates 10 market indicators, has fallen from 90 to 60. The firm said that still indicates a bullish but cooling phase. A reading of 50 or less would mean a regime change. CryptoQuant has set support between $73,000 and $77,600. According to the on-chain firm, the Fed decision and the Nov. 3 midterms are the two tests ahead that are to decide the apex currency’s next move. 

Inflation Clouds Fed's Outlook

The macro backdrop offers little respite. Energy-driven inflation could keep policy tight longer, as markets expect the Fed to hold rates, Bitunix analysts said. One analyst cited a Reuters survey in which economists raised inflation forecasts for 31 of 50 economies for 2027. Crude oil has been above $100 a barrel since early October, analysts said. The firm added that a hawkish signal from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could force bullish bond bets to unwind.

Bitcoin’s price was trading around $81,400, up over 1% in the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment remained in the ‘bearish’ zone, accompanied by ‘normal’ chatter levels over the past day.

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