Benjamin Cowen Warns Silver’s 60% Crash May Be A ‘Warning Sign’ For BTC — And The Bottom May Not Be In Yet

Cowen said Bitcoin could bottom after precious metals and could potentially recover in 2027.

• Bitcoin went from $15,000 to $126,000, Cowen said, while silver went to $120 before falling to around $49.
• Historical cycles suggest silver often bottoms before Bitcoin, including in August 2022 and November 2018.
• Cowen also cited the 2008 financial crisis, when silver bottomed in October, months before the S&P 500 bottomed in March 2009.

Silver's drop from its all-time high could be a hint of what Bitcoin (BTC) will do next, said Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen.

On Sunday, Cowen drew the parallel between the two assets. He said Bitcoin began its latest rally near $15,000 and silver began between $15 and $17 an ounce. Both then peaked at similar heights, with Bitcoin peaking at $126,000 and silver at $120.

Silver has since dropped to around $49, said Cowen, while Bitcoin was trading near $78,000.

Metals First To Go Down, Stocks Follow

Metals have often found a floor before Bitcoin in past cycles, Cowen said. Silver made a bottom in August 2022, with Bitcoin two months later, he said. Silver bottomed in November 2018, Bitcoin a month later.

He also cited the 2008 financial crisis when silver hit bottom in October, while the S&P 500 didn't bottom until March 2009. Silver plunged from a high of $21.36 an ounce in 2008 to an intraday low of $8.46 that October, according to daily trading data. The London fix tumbled to a low of $8.88 on Oct. 24, 2008. By the end of the year, silver had come back to $11.39. But stocks continued to decline. 

The S&P 500 did not hit its closing low until March 9, 2009, when it ended at 676.53. That capped a 56.8% fall from its October 2007 peak. The index had touched an intraday low of 666.79 in the previous session, on March 6, 2009.

Cowen said the comparison sounds extreme, but is difficult to dismiss. "What if silver is showing us where Bitcoin is going to go? It's just doing it. It's going down there first,"he said. 

Both rallies were based on the debasement trade, the bet that governments eroding the purchasing power of their currencies will force investors into hard assets, said Cowen. The difference, he added, is that silver tends to attract money when investors are running from risk, whereas Bitcoin goes up when they are running toward it. 

Watching For The Bottom

If history repeats, Bitcoin would bottom after metals, with both possibly recovering in 2027, Cowen said. The last two midterm years have played out the same way, he said. Metals get a pop and then Bitcoin outperforms them for a period. "Trade the market you have, not the market you want," he said.

Bitcoin’s price was trading $77,917, up over 0.7% in the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC dropped to ‘extremely bearish’ zone, from the ‘bearish’ zone, while chatter dipped to ‘normal’ from ‘high’ levels over the past day.

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