ASTS Stock Slips Overnight: AST Seeks More Spectrum For Broadband Expansion — Market Veteran Flags ‘Sky-High’ Valuation

Market veteran Herb Greenberg questioned AST’s valuation, highlighting an enterprise value of 140 times trailing revenue and a trailing EBITDA loss of about $532 million.

• AST is seeking additional Q/V and E-band spectrum for direct satellite connections to compatible customer terminals.
• Greenberg also highlighted a valuation of 324 times estimated 2028 adjusted EBITDA.
• AST targets initial, intermittent coverage in five markets, including the U.S., before the end of the year.

Shares of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) slipped 0.4% overnight late Sunday even as the company sought more spectrum to expand its satellite broadband capabilities, while market veteran Herb Greenberg questioned its valuation despite a steep selloff.

ASTS stock jumped nearly 3% on Friday to close at $39.70, but ended the week down 2%, marking its fourth consecutive weekly decline. 

ASTS Seeks More Airwaves For Broadband Expansion

In a Friday statement, AST’s unit, AST & Science, proposed adding Q/V and E-band service-link capabilities to its 248-satellite network. The links would connect satellites directly to customer terminals, broadening its proposed high-frequency operations beyond ground-gateway connections.

The request covers selected frequencies between 40 and 51.4 GHz, plus downlinks at 71 GHz -74 GHz and uplinks at 81GHz –84 GHz.  “This supports a deployment model in which the smallest terminal classes can be used by functional mobile user equipment with varying bandwidths, powers, and antenna sizes,” AST said.

The proposed services would require compatible terminals alongside AST’s core connectivity offering for standard smartphones. “AST SpaceMobile’s operations are not solely dependent on use of the E-band; AST SpaceMobile will utilize other spectrum, including the Q/V-band and 700/800 MHz bands, for its user terminals in addition to the E-band spectrum,” the filing said.

Approval and interference coordination are still necessary, including protections for military users in certain bands.

Greenberg Questions Whether ASTS Profits Can Match Hype

Meanwhile, Greenberg, a veteran financial journalist and investment researcher, questioned AST’s realistic profit potential despite its expanding addressable market. He noted that shares had lost over half their value over six months and recently hit a 52-week low.

“Even with that, it’s still priced as if it’s the hottest thing ever, especially when compared with its more established Satcom peers,” he said. Greenberg highlighted an enterprise valuation of 140 times trailing revenue, versus 38 times for Globalstar, 7.5 times for Iridium and three times for Viasat. He also noted a trailing EBITDA loss of about $532 million.

“Drilling deeper, based on trailing multiples, you wouldn’t know that its network is nowhere near fully built out yet,” he said. He highlighted multiples of 16 times estimated 2028 revenue and 324 times estimated 2028 adjusted EBITDA, based on $1 billion in revenue and $50 million in adjusted EBITDA. 

Greenberg acknowledged that a “sky-high valuation” alone rarely justifies avoiding or shorting a stock, while highlighting high short interest and Fidelity’s warning of securities-lending stress.

ASTS Advances Rollout Amid Regulatory Hurdles

AST is targeting initial, intermittent coverage before year-end in the United States, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and Saudi Arabia, subject to regulatory approvals. Continuous service will require more satellites.

“We are moving toward service with the partnerships, spectrum and network capabilities needed to bring cellular broadband from space into people’s everyday lives,” President Scott Wisniewski said.

The company has more than 60 gateways deployed, installed or planned, supporting over 60 mobile operators whose networks reach more than three billion subscribers. It targets 100 MHz of U.S. spectrum access and 5,600 activated coverage cells before year-end, up from over 3,000. Meanwhile, its smartphone-focused network has shown peak downloads of 98.9 Mbps, with next-gen satellites expected to reach about 200 Mbps.

In Europe, Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefonica and Vodafone are exploring a joint mobile-satellite spectrum bid, with a satellite provider yet to be selected. On the other hand, Viasat has challenged an earlier AST overseas-spectrum application as “fatally flawed” over interference and allocation concerns. 

How Do Retail Traders Feel About ASTS?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for ASTS slipped to ‘neutral’ from ‘bullish’ levels a week ago amid a 29% decline in 24-hour message volumes.

One user noted the fresh filing and said, “If I'm reading this right and it's correct, the SEC just gave ASTS the rights to compete with Starlink, reversing the competition for home broadband.”

View this Stocktwits post

Another user said, “Ast will be able to go after starlinks main business! I did not see this coming the TAM here just got a lot bigger!”

View this Stocktwits post

ASTS stock has declined 45% year-to-date.

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