ASTS Stock Faces Starlink Threat: Analyst Says Musk Could Pair Ligado, Viasat And FCC Spectrum For ‘Massive’ Midband Block

AST’s upcoming access to Ligado spectrum, up to 40 MHz plus another 5 MHz, is still subject to approvals and closing conditions.

• Telecom analyst Roger Entner said SpaceX could build a “massive” midband position by combining Ligado and Viasat spectrum with FCC auction licenses.
• The FCC has proposed auctioning 25 MHz across the 1675-1695 MHz and 2020-2025 MHz bands.
• SpaceX has FCC authorization for up to 15,000 next-generation direct-to-device satellites.

Telecom analyst Roger Entner said SpaceX could build a "massive" midband spectrum position if it secured additional spectrum associated with Ligado and Viasat and won licenses in a proposed FCC auction. This brings AST SpaceMobile's spectrum strategy under fresh scrutiny. 

ASTS stock rose nearly 1% to $51.46 on Monday, recovering slightly after a 16% slide over the previous two sessions. The selloff followed SpaceX’s agreement last week to acquire Grain Management’s nationwide 800-megahertz spectrum portfolio, putting the satellite-to-phone spectrum race back in focus.

Analyst Sees SpaceX Building Midband Powerhouse

Entner said major carriers are likely to contest the 25 megahertz of spectrum the FCC has proposed auctioning. “Every major carrier will likely bid on these licenses for either offensive or defensive reasons,” he said.

His bigger scenario is based on Ligado and Viasat. “If Elon Musk acquires Ligado and Viasat and secures this new spectrum, Starlink could control a massive midband block for terrestrial and direct to device services,” Entner said.

On the other hand, ARK Investment Management analyst Tasha Keeney sees SpaceX’s recent spectrum deal and satellite authorization as building blocks for a broader mobile push. “Together, the two moves give Starlink Mobile a credible path to becoming a full mobile carrier instead of a dead-zone backup,” she said. Keeney said low-band spectrum could improve indoor coverage, while ground radios and small cellular units linked to Starlink dish infrastructure could add capacity where needed.

FCC Proposal Puts 25 MHz Up For Grabs

The FCC is seeking comment on auctioning spectrum in the 1675–1695 MHz and 2020-2025 MHz bands. Its proposal would allow flexible use for terrestrial wireless, direct-to-device service or both. Final rules and an auction date have not been set. The bands sit next to the spectrum associated with AWS-4, Ligado and Viasat.

SpaceX already has a major satellite step in place: The FCC authorized it to deploy up to 15,000 next-generation satellites for direct-to-device service. SpaceX says the system will work with spectrum around 2 GHz and deliver substantially more bandwidth than its current generation.

SpaceX Looks To Fill Starlink’s Coverage Gaps

SpaceX has agreed to acquire Grain Management’s nationwide 800 MHz portfolio, including up to 14 MHz of paired low-band spectrum. The deal still needs FCC approval. Neither company disclosed the price, though reports have put it at $8 billion.

The low-band frequencies can travel farther and penetrate buildings better than higher-frequency signals, helping address a weakness of satellite-to-phone service. SpaceX’s plans also call for ground-based radios on towers, rooftops and other structures. Keeney has pointed to small cellular units connected to Starlink dish infrastructure as another way to add capacity, while noting that dish locations may not line up with areas of high mobile demand.

ASTS And SpaceX Could Vie For Adjacent Spectrum

AST’s own spectrum plans hinge on a conditional arrangement with Ligado. Under a 2025 term sheet, AST would receive long-term rights to use up to 40 MHz of Ligado’s L-band spectrum in the U.S. and Canada, plus access to 5 MHz in the 1670-1675 MHz band. The segment borders the lower edge of the FCC’s proposed 1675–1695 MHz auction band. 

While AST SpaceMobile relies on carrier partnerships to connect its satellites with ordinary phones, SpaceX is assembling a more direct mobile-network model that combines satellites, spectrum and ground infrastructure. 

How Do Retail Traders Feel About ASTS?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for ASTS slipped to ‘bullish’ from ‘extremely bullish’ levels a day ago amid a 338% jump in 24-hour message volumes.

One bearish user said, “$ASTS trending for no reason. No commercial revenue. No profits. Launches promised like they promised they would not do another offering (they did and never apologized or explained themselves). You cant trust them.”

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Another user said, “$ASTS classic pump and dump. Not sure how they get away with it. Wonder how many longs wish they sold in the 80's....”

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ASTS stock has declined 29% year-to-date.

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