Arthur Hayes Says AI Drained Bitcoin's Liquidity, Is Now Bearish On All Risk Assets But Energy

Hayes thinks that if the AI bubble bursts, the resulting financial stress would force renewed money printing, and Bitcoin is well-positioned to absorb that capital.

• Arthur Hayes said he revisited his Bitcoin liquidity thesis after BTC fell sharply despite continued money creation.
• Arthur Hayes estimated $1.5 trillion in AI-related debt was issued between 2022 and 2026, funding the AI buildout and leaving little liquidity for Bitcoin to absorb.
• He said he's now bearish on nearly every risk asset except large energy producers, which could drag Bitcoin down in a broad selloff.

BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom chief investment officer Arthur Hayes thinks he's finally figured out why Bitcoin (BTC) hasn't behaved the way his models said it should, because all the money went to artificial intelligence instead.

Speaking on a Cointelegraph podcast, Hayes said he revisited his own framework after Bitcoin failed to perform as his liquidity thesis predicted. He noted that Bitcoin traded near $125,000 in October last year and has since fallen roughly 50%, even though more money was created over that period. "What about my mental model is wrong?" he questioned, concluding that he had been tracking how much fiat was being created without examining where it actually went.

Hayes estimated that roughly $1.5 trillion in AI-related debt was issued between 2022 and 2026, with 75% to 80% of it coming from 2025. He said that money financed hyperscaler capital expenditure and the broader AI buildout, leaving little left over for Bitcoin to absorb. He argued that Bitcoin was able to rally off its FTX-era lows precisely because AI had not yet started vacuuming up liquidity, but that the dynamic reversed as AI spending and lending accelerated into 2025.

Bitcoin As The 'Piggy Bank'

When asked whether crypto holders were cashing out Bitcoin to fund AI trades ahead of a wave of major IPOs, Hayes said it's probably a bit of both. Some investors likely did sell crypto at the margins to chase AI. But the bigger story, he argued, is simpler: newly printed dollars went to AI and never made it to Bitcoin in the first place.

Hayes said he's now bearish on nearly every risk asset except large energy producers. He's watching three mega-IPOs in particular, including SpaceX, which went public last week, and Anthropic (ANTHZZX) and OpenAI (OPEAZZX), reportedly set to list in September at multi-trillion-dollar valuations. 

His concern is that investors will need to sell other holdings to free up cash for those listings, and Bitcoin could get dragged down with everything else in a broad, correlation-driven selloff.

The Path Back For Bitcoin

Despite the bearish near-term view, Hayes thinks the same setup eventually flips in Bitcoin's favor. 

If the AI bubble bursts, or even looks like it might, that kind of financial stress tends to force central banks back into money-printing mode. At that point, with investors no longer willing to pay 100 times sales for AI stocks, capital would need somewhere new to go. Hayes thinks Bitcoin is well-positioned to be that destination, especially in an environment flooded with freshly printed money.

Bitcoin's price (BTC) was trading around $64,000, relatively flat over the past 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC moved to ‘neutral’ from the ‘bullish’ zone, while chatter around it stayed in the ‘low’ levels over the past day. 

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