Amazon Heads Into Earnings With Bullish Retail Sentiment – AWS Growth, Capex Plan In Focus

Three-fourth respondents in a Stocktwits poll expect Amazon to blow past Q4 earnings estimates.

• Amazon’s Q4 revenue is expected to rise 15.5 to $211.2 billion - analysts.
• Earlier, Microsoft and Google results disappointed over cloud growth and high capex plans, respectively.
• Stocktwits sentiment for AMZN flips to ‘bullish’ from ‘bearish.’

Retail traders are turning optimistic on Amazon.com, Inc. ahead of one of the most closely watched earnings reports this season. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits flipped to ‘bullish’ early Thursday, from ‘bearish’ the previous day, ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report after the markets close.

The earnings season hasn’t been kind to Big Tech players so far and Amazon would be looking to buck the trend.

For investors, two metrics are central to how they’ll assess the e-commerce and cloud giant – and what might ultimately drive AMZN shares: growth in Amazon Web Services and Amazon’s capital expenditure outlook for 2026.

Microsoft showed slowing growth in its cloud unit Azure, while Alphabet said it would double its capital expenditures this year – details that weighed their shares. 

Analyst Expectations Vs Retail Optimism 

Analysts expect Amazon’s revenue to rise 15.5% to $211.23 billion, and adjusted profit to rise 5% to $1.95 per share, according to consensus estimates from Koyfin.

Of the 7,000 respondents to a recent Stocktwits poll, 75% believe that Amazon would surpass Wall Street’s expectations for both top- and bottom-line.

Amazon’s Stock Performance Lags Broader Market

Amazon is going into the earnings report amid significant share underperformance. Amazon shares have declined for the sessions straight, losing about 4%. The stock gained a mere 5.2% over 2025, sharply lower than the benchmark S&P 500 index’s 16.4% gains.

Amazon last week announced that it would lay off 16,000 works as it moves to streamline the organization and reduce managerial layers. Amazon had forecast $125 billion in capital expenditures for 2025 and had indicated plans to spend more this year.

In separate news, Amazon is in talks with OpenAI for a partnership to use the latter’s AI models and customize them for its Alexa virtual assistant, The Information reported on Wednesday, citing sources. That would likely form part of the multi-billion-dollar investment Amazon is currently weighing in OpenAI.

Currently, 65 of the 69 analysts covering the stock recommend ‘Buy’ or higher, and the remaining four recommend ‘Hold,’ according to Koyfin. Their average price target of $296.11 implies a 16% upside to the stock’s last close. 

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