AI Debt Has Exploded 4X To Nearly $500 Billion: What It Means For NVDA, ORCL And CRWV, According To IO Fund

Morgan Stanley data cited by IO Fund shows AI-related debt issuance reached $466 billion through September, up from $101 billion during the same period in 2025.

• Lenders fund borrowers such as Oracle, CoreWeave and SpaceX, which use that financing to purchase chips from suppliers including Nvidia.
• The borrowers then rent compute capacity to customers, while suppliers collect payment when chips are delivered.
• For Nvidia, the financing surge is supporting chip purchases across the ecosystem, analysts at IO Fund said.

Artificial intelligence is becoming a financeable infrastructure asset class as companies increasingly turn to debt markets to fund data centers and AI hardware, according to IO Fund.

Morgan Stanley data cited by IO Fund shows AI-related debt issuance reached $466 billion through September, up from $101 billion during the same period in 2025. Goldman Sachs puts the figure at $489 billion as of July 22, already above the $322 billion raised throughout 2025.

Nvidia shares closed 0.6% lower on Friday, Oracle shares closed 0.5% higher, while CoreWeave shares fell more than 2%.

What The AI Debt Boom Means For NVDA, ORCL and CRWV

IO Fund's analysis shows Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), Oracle Corp. (ORCL) and CoreWeave Inc. (CRWV) occupy different positions in the debt-funded AI infrastructure chain.

Lenders fund borrowers such as Oracle, CoreWeave and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX), which use that financing to purchase chips from suppliers including Nvidia. The borrowers then rent compute capacity to customers, while suppliers collect payment when chips are delivered.

For Nvidia, the financing surge is supporting chip purchases across the ecosystem, analysts at IO Fund said. Nvidia generated $127 billion in free cash flow over the 12 months ended July 2026, IO Fund noted. It also added that Nvidia has signed preliminary agreements with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR targeting more than $500 billion in third-party capital.

CEO Jensen Huang said Nvidia retains the option to backstop up to $125 billion across these structures. IO Fund also notes that borrowers pay Nvidia and other chip suppliers upfront while customer revenue arrives over multi-year contracts.

“AI compute is becoming a financeable infrastructure asset class,” IO Fund said.

For Oracle, the debt burden is already visible in its financials, IO Fund stated, while adding that Oracle reported $125.3 billion in notes payable and borrowings in the first quarter (Q1). This is over three times its $37.1 billion in cash and marketable securities. Quarterly interest expense rose 55% year over year to $1.43 billion.

Oracle also has $288 billion of new data center leases that have not yet started, with terms of 15 to 19 years. IO Fund said Oracle is reportedly considering an investor-funded entity that would purchase chips and lease them to the company, keeping the debt with the separate entity until the leases begin.

CoreWeave's Interest Bill Shows The Cost Of AI Financing

For CoreWeave, IO Fund's analysis points to the direct cost of financing rapid capacity expansion. The neocloud generated $2.6 billion in second-quarter (Q2) revenue while spending $9.4 billion on quarterly capex, most of which was financed by debt.

CoreWeave's total debt reached about $35.6 billion, while FY2026 capex guidance increased to $35 billion-$39 billion. Its Q2 interest expense jumped 140% year over year to $640 million, and the company guided to $860 million-$940 million for the third quarter (Q3).

“That means more than 25% of its revenue goes to servicing its debt,” IO Fund wrote.

CoreWeave also has approximately $15 billion of total debt due through 2028, while some higher-interest debt carrying rates above 10% is due in 2030 and beyond.

IO Fund also highlighted 14 circular financing arrangements identified by the IMF across the broader GPU ecosystem, linking lenders, chip suppliers, infrastructure operators and AI customers.

What Retail Investors Think Of NVDA Stock

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around Nvidia trended in the ‘bullish’ territory at the time of writing.

NVDA stock is up 13% year-to-date, ORCL stock is down 35%, while CRWV stock is down 24%. The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) is up 15% over the past 12 months, while the iShares U.S. Technology ETF (IYW) is up 25%.

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