Adobe Expects US Holiday Online Sales To Reach $253.4 Billion This Year

Adobe said that Cyber Week, the five days including Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday, is expected to drive 17.2% of overall spend this season, at $43.7 billion, up 6.3% from a year earlier.

The company noted that Cyber Monday will remain the biggest online shopping day of the season as well as this year, with $14.2 billion in online sales. On Thanksgiving, consumers are expected to spend $6.4 billion online, up 4.9% compared to last year, according to Adobe.

Adobe said that consumers are looking for greater flexibility in managing their budgets this holiday season, with Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) expected to drive $20.2 billion in online spend, which is about $2 billion more than the 2024 holiday season.

Consumers are not simply looking for the lowest price this season but more competitive discounts, which will drive shoppers to “trade up” to higher-ticket items in certain categories, Adobe said.

Adobe expects an uptick in purchases for the home this season, while discounts for electronics are expected to peak at 28% off the listed price, compared to 30.1% in 2024, and for toys, the offer is set to hit 27% versus 28% in 2024.

Analysts and investors are closely eyeing this holiday season, which comes on the heels of consumer caution following the rising prices on products due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on global trading partners.

The data by Adobe Analytics analyzes direct transactions online, covering over one trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million stock-keeping units, and 18 product categories.

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