‘Shark Tank’ Judge Kevin O’Leary Passed On SpaceX IPO, But May Buy Soon: ‘The Bigger Opportunity Is…’

SPCX stock climbed 6% on Thursday despite 911.5 million shares becoming eligible for sale after a lockup expired.

• O’Leary sees greater value in Musk potentially connecting SpaceX with Tesla, AI, robotics and autonomous driving.
• The investor identified the $100-to-$110 range as a potential entry point once post-IPO volatility settles.
• SpaceX added $6.7 billion in cloud contracts and is targeting a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by year-end.

“Shark Tank” judge and financial commentator Kevin O’Leary said he may begin buying SpaceX shares once the stock’s post-IPO volatility settles, despite declining his original allocation over liquidity concerns, as he sees greater long-term value in CEO Elon Musk potentially bringing his tech businesses together.

O’Leary Eyes SpaceX Entry Within 60 Days

O’Leary said on X that SpaceX cannot be judged like a conventional company based on one quarter. The more compelling thesis, in his view, is Musk’s ability to connect SpaceX with Tesla, AI, robotics and autonomous vehicles. “The bigger opportunity is what Elon could eventually build” by bringing those businesses together, O’Leary said.

“I passed on my IPO allocation because liquidity matters to me. But as the stock settles over the next 30 to 60 days, I’ll be watching closely, and I may start building a position,” he said.

O’Leary sees the $100-to-$110 range as a possible area for the post-IPO volatility to clear. He also floated the possibility of SpaceX eventually absorbing Tesla or parts of its robotics and autonomous-driving operations. His interest fits the strategy he laid out in June: gain exposure to SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI instead of betting everything on one winner. “Nobody knows how this race will play out,” he said at the time.

SPCX Defies Lockup Selling Fears 

SPCX stock climbed 6% in heavy Thursday trading even as its first major lockup restriction expired, opening the door for employees and early investors to sell about 911.5 million shares. This was more than the 639 million shares sold in the record June IPO, which placed less than 5% of SpaceX’s equity in public hands.

The additional supply had been viewed as a potential source of selling pressure, but eligibility does not mean every holder will immediately cash out. Further lockups will expire through Dec.8, potentially lifting the tradable portion of SpaceX to 40%. Musk’s stake and most of the remaining shares stay restricted until mid-2027.

SpaceX Touts Rapid AI Investment Payback

Thursday’s rebound came after SpaceX’s first public earnings call on Thursday exposed the scale of its AI investment. The firm’s second-quarter (Q2) AI revenue more than tripled to $2.6 billion. SpaceX directed $15.8 billion toward AI infrastructure during the quarter, accounting for most of its $18.4 billion in total capital spending.

CFO Bret Johnsen said new compute investments are paying for themselves in less than a year, compared with the multiyear recovery periods typical of data centers. SpaceX has also secured another $6.7 billion in cloud contracts since the second quarter ended and is targeting a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by year-end.

The company is not easing off. Capex is expected to remain near Q2 levels over the next two quarters as SpaceX builds more computing capacity, Starships, and next-generation Starlink satellites.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About SPCX?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for SPCX flipped to ‘bullish’ from ‘bearish’ levels a day ago amid a 353% surge in message volumes over the past week.

A Stocktwits poll of 2,300 users found 34% would buy SpaceX around $110, while 31% would wait for a drop below $80, 25% favored an entry below $100, and 10% were not interested at any price. 

SPCX stock has declined 29% so far this year.

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