The exit polls show BJP will be the single largest party but the possibility of a hung assembly remains the same.
The Himalayan state of Uttarakhand went into the polls on February 14 and locked the fate of 632 candidates. The elections were contested on 70 legislative assembly seats in the single-phase elections as Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Indian National Congress (INC) and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) were the major contenders.
As soon as the predictions by the exit polls started coming in, pollsters suggested a tough fight between Pushkar Singh Dhami-led BJP and Harish Rawat’s Congress while others predicted in favour of BJP.
However, looking at the predictions made by most pollsters, BJP will come forward as the single-largest party with an average seat share of 34 to 37 seats while Congress looms between 31 to 33 seats. Given that the halfway number to winning is the elections is 36 seats, it will be difficult for BJP to form its government.
Similarly, Congress is also a little far off from the magic number of 36, needed to form the government. Meaning, Uttarakhand will most likely be looking at a hung assembly.
Now that both the parties have been predicted to not cross the 36-seats mark and a situation of hung assembly arises, the weightage to form the government lays largely on independent candidates.
Both the political parties, particular BJP, will try to woo the independent candidates in order to form the government. And if that happens, the chances of BJP registering its win will be higher, taking the kind of expert that BJP is in horse-trading.
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Uttarakhand, which has seen at least 11 Chief Ministers since the hilly region was declared as a separate seat, has a trend that its people follow during elections. In all these years, Uttarakhand has never witnessed a party coming to power to two successive terms. However, if BJP manages to win this election, it will be successful in breaking the trend.