NDA has numbers for Constitution Bill, INDIA bloc in strong opposition

The BJP-led NDA, with 298 MPs, is poised to pass the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill in the Lok Sabha. The INDIA bloc, with 238 MPs, strongly opposes the bill, which is linked to women's reservation and a delimitation process.

The numbers game in the Lok Sabha indicates a clear advantage for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led (BJP) National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which is supporting the proposed Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill, with the NDA's 298 Members of Parliament (MPs) expected to vote in favour of the proposed Constitutional Bill.

Contention Over Delimitation and Women's Quota

On the other hand, the INDIA bloc has registered its strong opposition while alleging that the Centre was attempting to rush the proposed 131st Amendment Bill under the guise of women's quota. The Constitutional Amendment bill's implementation is tied to a population-based revision of constituencies based on the 2011 census. It proposes delimitation--a wider political overhaul--aiming to change the size and composition of state legislative assemblies and Lok Sabha.

The government is planning to implement the women's reservation ahead of the 2029 General Elections by bringing in an amendment to operationalise the 2023 Act and a constitutional amendment to delink the delimitation process from the 2027 census. The proposed delimitation bill's implementation is tied to a population-based revision of constituencies based on the 2011 census. Therefore, the 238 MPs of INDIA bloc are definite about voting against the proposed Constitutional Bill.

Moreover, the votes of four MPs, including Independents, remain undecided. They may vote against or abstain during the voting.

Alliance Breakdown: Who Stands Where?

The Opposition Camp: INDIA Bloc

The INDIA bloc, comprising 235 MPs, has publicly declared its opposition to the bill. However, uncertainty remains over whether all listed parties will vote against, abstain, or stage a walkout during the final vote. The INDIA bloc and other opposition parties that are expected to vote against the bill comprise Congress (with 98 MPs), Samajwadi Party (37), Trinamool Congress (28), Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (22), Shiv Sena (UBT) (9), NCP (SP) (8), and others such as Rashtriya Janata Dal with two MPs, Communist Party of India (Marxist) (4), Aam Aadmi Party (3), Muslim League, and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha with three MPs each, CPI(ML)L and National Conference with two MPs each, along with smaller parties, including Azad Samaj Party-Kanshiram (1).

The Government's Support: NDA

The BJP-led NDA, which is in favour of the Constitutional Bill, enjoys support from the Telugu Desam Party (with 16 MPs), Janata Dal (United) (12), Shiv Sena (7), Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (5), YSRCP (4), and the Janata Dal (Secular), Jana Sena Party, and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), with two MPs each. The Zoram People's Movement (ZPM) has one MP in the Lok Sabha. With this tally, the passing of the Bill in the Lok Sabha is highly likely.

The Constitutional Amendment bill's implementation is tied to a population-based revision of constituencies based on the 2011 census. It proposes delimitation--a wider political overhaul--aiming to change the size and composition of state legislative assemblies and Lok Sabha.

The Centre has called a special sitting of Parliament from April 16 to 18.

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