IEA Sees Record Coal Consumption in 2025 Despite Energy Transition

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts global coal consumption will hit a record in 2025, significantly influenced by US policy measures. This near-term rise occurs despite a slowdown in demand from China and India.

Coal Consumption in 2025

Global coal consumption is expected to hit a record in 2025, the IEA said Wednesday, thanks in part to policy measures introduced by the Trump administration to boost the industry.

Demand Growth Slows Despite Near-Term Rise

In its annual report on the coal industry, the International Energy Agency said demand was on course to rise by 0.5 percent this year to hit a record 8.85 billion tonnes, although demand is expected to decline over the rest of the decade as rival generation options multiply.

China and India No Longer Driving Growth

China and India are usually the main drivers of growth in coal consumption as the two emerging economies race to meet rising demand for electricity.

But demand for coal, which is the main contributor of climate warming carbon dioxide emissions from human sources, held steady in China and fell in India.

Coal Demand in China and India Trends Lower

The IEA sees demand in China, the top coal consuming nation, decreasing somewhat over the next five years.

In India, an early and intense monsoon season gave a boost to hydropower and reduced demand for electricity produced from coal-fired power plants for only the third time in five decades, the IEA said.

However, "strong policy support for coal in the United States ... helped lift coal demand there in 2025," said the IEA.

US Coal Demand Rises on Policy Support

It said US "consumption is poised to increase by eight percent in 2025 amid a combination of higher natural gas prices and a slowdown in the retirement of coal plants due to policy support led by the federal government," said the IEA.

That contrasts to an average drop of six percent per year over the past 15 years.

Trump Administration Pushes Coal Mining

President Donald Trump in April signed measures to "turbocharge coal mining" in the United States and more than double electricity production to keep up with power-hungry artificial intelligence technology.

However the IEA said it still expects US coal demand to decline by six percent per year on average through 2030, as renewable power generation grows and coal plants are taken offline, albeit at a slower pace than previously expected.

Higher than forecast electricity demand or slower coal plant retirements could slow the decline in US coal use, as could the price of natural gas, another fuel used to generate electricity.

Global Coal Demand Outlook to 2030

Globally, the IEA sees coal demand in 2030 easing by three percent compared with 2025, with strong growth in electricity use supporting coal use.

"But competition with other power sources is also set to intensify, with renewable capacity surging, nuclear expanding steadily, and a wave of liquefied natural gas (LNG) arriving on the market," it said.

Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA's director for energy markets and security, noted that coal's share in power generation continues to decline.

"In 2013, it was 41 percent, and in 2025 we expect it to be around 34 percent," he said. "And that's the lowest in the IEA's history of statistics."

The Paris-based IEA advises its 32 energy-consuming member countries on energy policy and monitors market developments.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by Asianet Newsable English staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)