India's BRICS Trade Booms, But Widening Deficit Poses a Challenge

India's trade with BRICS nations grew strongly to $416B in CY2025, but the trade deficit nearly doubled to $224B. This imbalance, driven by rising imports from China and Russia, poses a significant policy challenge for New Delhi.

India's trade engagement with BRICS nations has grown strongly over the past five years, but the widening trade deficit poses a key policy challenge as New Delhi prepares to host the BRICS Foreign Ministers' Meeting on Thursday and Friday.

Widening Trade Deficit a Key Concern

According to a report by Rubix Data Sciences, India's bilateral trade with the other 10 BRICS countries touched $416 billion in CY2025, registering a nearly 10% CAGR between CY2021 and CY2025. However, the goods trade deficit with the bloc has almost doubled, rising from $117 billion in CY2021 to $224 billion in CY2025.

Looking ahead, India's role within the expanded 11-nation grouping will be shaped by its ability to balance growing import dependencies with efforts to boost outbound shipments and diversify supply chains. With BRICS now representing 49.5% of the global population, 40% of global GDP and 26% of global trade, the bloc's influence on India's trade dynamics is set to increase further under the chairship theme of "Building for Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation and Sustainability."

Rising Import Reliance on BRICS

The data underscores India's rising import reliance on BRICS economies. Cumulative imports from BRICS stood at $320 billion in CY2025, up at a 12% CAGR since CY2021, pushing the bloc's share in India's total imports from 36% to 43%. Russia has emerged as a key source, with imports growing at a 61% CAGR, largely driven by crude oil. The UAE and Brazil also remain major partners, each recording 12% CAGR over the period.

Modest Export Growth

On the export side, growth has been more modest. India's cumulative exports to BRICS stood at $96 billion in CY2025, rising at just 3% CAGR between CY2021 and CY2025. The bloc accounted for about 22% of India's total exports, with the UAE (11%), Russia (8%) and Egypt (5%) showing the fastest growth.

Country-Level Trade Imbalance

The imbalance is stark at the country level. In CY2025, India ran a trade deficit with five BRICS members China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Indonesia while maintaining a near-balanced trade with Brazil and South Africa. China alone accounted for a deficit exceeding $100 billion, followed by Russia at $55 billion.

BRICS as Global Net Exporters

Globally, BRICS nations are net exporters, with cumulative exports at $6.1 trillion and imports at $4.9 trillion in CY2025, reflecting their strong production capacities. The bloc's share of global exports has held steady at around 25% and imports at 20% between CY2021 and CY2025, while total trade remained largely flat at $10.9 trillion with a 1% CAGR.

The Path Forward for India

As India hosts the BRICS Foreign Ministers' Meeting this month, the focus will be on reforms to global governance and the multilateral system under the "BRICS@20" agenda. For India, the forward path lies in leveraging the grouping to secure more balanced trade terms, strengthen energy and supply chain cooperation, and push for a more inclusive global economic order while narrowing the widening deficit with key partners. (ANI)

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