India's auto loan ABS outlook neutral for 2026 on strong economy: Fitch

Fitch Ratings maintains a 'Neutral' outlook for India's auto loan ABS for 2026, citing stable asset performance and resilient domestic economic growth. The economy is projected to expand by 7.4% in FY26, driven by strong domestic demand.

Fitch Maintains 'Neutral' Outlook on India's Auto Loan ABS

Fitch Ratings has maintained a 'Neutral' outlook for India's auto loan asset-backed securities (ABS) sector for 2026, citing expectations of stable asset performance supported by resilient domestic economic growth.

Economic Projections and Key Drivers

According to the rating agency, India's economy is projected to expand by a strong 7.4 per cent in the financial year ending March 2026 (FY26), before moderating to 6.4 per cent in FY27.

Fitch noted that all its rated auto loan ABS transactions are backed by secured loans linked to income-generating assets such as commercial vehicles, which should help sustain steady loan performance amid robust growth conditions.

Fitch said domestic demand will remain the key driver of economic momentum despite global trade uncertainties. "Domestic demand will continue driving the economic momentum amid the trade uncertainty, as strong real income dynamics support consumer spending," said the report.

What is an Auto Loan Asset-Backed Security (ABS)?

An Auto Loan Asset-Backed Security (ABS) is a way for banks to turn thousands of individual car loans into a single investment product. When people borrow money to buy a car or truck, they promise to pay the bank back with interest over several years. Instead of waiting years to collect that money, the bank bundles thousands of these loans together into a "pool" and sells it to big investors.

Strong real income growth is expected to support consumer spending, while public capital expenditure, a major growth catalyst in recent years, will continue to underpin asset performance. However, public investment growth is likely to ease due to tighter fiscal policy.

The agency expects private investment activity to improve in the second half of FY27 as financial conditions gradually loosen.

External Factors and Sector-Specific Trends

The rating agency does not foresee a significant direct impact from higher US tariffs on its rated transactions. While trade-related uncertainties could affect sentiment and investment decisions, Fitch observed that the freight industry has historically adapted by reallocating activity across sectors, provided the broader economy remains healthy.

Agricultural Sector Impact on Loan Performance

Tractor loans have accounted for a sizeable share of the underlying loan pools in recent years, increasing exposure to the agricultural sector.

Fitch highlighted that southwest monsoon rainfall was above normal in 2025, with cumulative rainfall nearly 8 per cent higher than the long-term average by the end of September. Improved rainfall supported strong summer crop sowing, which is expected to boost farm output and incomes, thereby supporting loan performance.

Asset Performance and Delinquency Outlook

As of November 2025 payout month, the weighted average of loans overdue by more than 90 days stood at 0.8 per cent across Fitch-rated Indian auto loan ABS transactions. Fitch expects delinquency levels to remain broadly stable.

Potential Risks to Outlook

The agency cautioned that asset performance could weaken if economic growth slows sharply due to severe global disruptions or if originators materially relax underwriting standards.

The rating Outlook on all Fitch-rated Indian auto loan ABS transactions remains Stable, supported by sequential structures and increasing credit enhancement buffers.

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