Indian equity market sees worst relative performance since 1995: Report

India's equity market recorded its worst relative performance in Asia since 1995 in 2025, according to a Jefferies report. Portfolios with high India exposure underperformed due to weak Indian equity returns, lagging regional peers like China.

India's equity market recorded its worst relative performance in an Asian context since 1995 in 2025, weighing heavily on regional portfolios with high India exposure, according to the latest GREED & fear report by global brokerage Jefferies.

Jefferies' Portfolio Performance

The Jefferies Asia ex-Japan long-only portfolio, which historically maintained a significant overweight position in India, underperformed its benchmark last year primarily due to weak Indian equity returns. Indian stocks in the portfolio declined by an average 2.4 per cent in US dollar terms in 2025, even as Chinese stocks in the same portfolio rose by an average 23 per cent. "The portfolio's Indian stocks declined by an average of 2.4% in US dollar terms last year, while the portfolio's Chinese stocks rose by an average of 23%," noted the report.

The report noted that India accounted for 36 per cent of the Asia ex-Japan portfolio at the end of 2025, down from a peak exposure of 50 per cent in February 2024. Despite this reduction, India remained the single largest contributor to relative underperformance during the year.

Jefferies highlighted that the underperformance was notable given India's long-standing leadership within Asia over the past decade. The brokerage described 2025 as a clear break from that trend, marking India's weakest relative showing versus regional peers in nearly three decades.

India-Focused Fund Also Lags

The India-focused long-only equity portfolio launched by Jefferies in July 2021 also lagged its benchmark. The portfolio rose marginally by 0.2 per cent in US dollar terms in the most recent quarter but underperformed the MSCI India Index, which gained 4.8 per cent over the same period. For the full year, the portfolio declined 2.7 per cent, compared with a 4.3 per cent rise in the benchmark.

Long-Term Outlook and Regional Context

However, Jefferies emphasised that India remains a long-term outperformer. Since inception, the India long-only portfolio has delivered an 81.9 per cent total return in US dollar terms, significantly ahead of the MSCI India Index's 48.7 per cent gain and the Nifty's 45.7 per cent rise.

The report added that India's weaker performance contrasted with stronger outcomes in other emerging markets and China in particular, underscoring a rotation in regional leadership rather than a structural deterioration in India's long-term equity story. (ANI)

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