Global M&A hits record $3.1T in H1 2026, fuelled by AI, mega deals

Global M&A volumes soared to a record USD 3.1 trillion in H1 2026, a 48% YoY increase, driven by mega-deals and AI-led strategic acquisitions, a Goldman Sachs report says. The outlook remains strong despite economic uncertainties.

Global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) volumes climbed to a record USD 3.1 trillion in the first half of 2026, surpassing the previous peak recorded in H1 2021, as larger deal sizes and AI-driven strategic acquisitions fuelled activity despite persistent geopolitical and inflationary uncertainties, according to the Goldman Sachs Investment Banking global M&A outlook.

The outlook said global M&A volumes rose 48 per cent year-on-year, with the increase "driven primarily by the surge in deal size," as mega M&A volumes jumped 125 per cent year-on-year. It added that the current deal cycle still has "substantial room to run" despite macroeconomic headwinds.

The 'Volatility Paradox' and AI's Role

Describing the current environment as a "volatility paradox," Goldman Sachs said strategic priorities are increasingly outweighing concerns over economic uncertainty. "A volatility paradox has emerged, wherein strategic urgency is overriding macroeconomic uncertainty," the outlook said.

It added that "the risk of standing still has become greater than the risk of execution," as companies pursue acquisitions to strengthen AI capabilities, optimise portfolios and stay competitive. The report said AI has become a key force reshaping corporate dealmaking, with companies pursuing acquisitions not only to add new technologies but also to embed AI into their core businesses. "This ambition is driving the rise of 'DNA deals,' acquisitions that embed AI into an organization's core rather than layering it onto existing products or processes," it said.

Client Perspectives on M&A Strategy

According to Goldman Sachs' survey of around 500 corporate and financial sponsor clients, 58 per cent said scale and strategic growth would be the primary factor driving M&A decisions, 44 per cent were bullish on the M&A outlook under current macroeconomic conditions, while 61 per cent expected AI to have a moderate to high impact on their M&A strategy.

Stephan Feldgoise, Head of Global M&A at Goldman Sachs, said boardroom priorities have shifted despite ongoing economic challenges. "We're seeing a fundamental shift where boardrooms view inaction as the ultimate risk--proactively pursuing transformative transactions despite persistent macroeconomic headwinds," Feldgoise said.

Future Outlook and Key Risks

Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs said deal activity is expected to remain strong in the second half of 2026, although transactions are likely to become more complex as market volatility persists. The outlook said infrastructure, energy and physical AI could emerge as major areas for M&A activity, while risks such as inflation, regulatory scrutiny and valuation gaps remain key factors to watch. (ANI)

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