Global AI investment to hit $1 trillion in 2026: Goldman Sachs

Global AI investment is set to reach approximately $1 trillion in 2026, according to a Goldman Sachs report. This spending is expected to grow as a share of global GDP through 2028, with cumulative investment reaching $1.8 trillion by 2026.

Global investment in artificial intelligence is projected to reach around $1 trillion in 2026, with AI-related capital expenditure expected to remain robust in the near term, according to a research report by Goldman Sachs.

The investment is forecast to rise from 0.9 per cent of global GDP in 2026 to 1.3 per cent in 2027 and 1.4 per cent in 2028, suggesting that the AI buildout could continue to support capital spending over the next two years.

Investment Scope and Cumulative Projections

Goldman Sachs Research estimated that global AI-related investment would amount to about $1 trillion this year, including $581 billion in the US. The estimate is broader than the commonly cited projection of around $794 billion in capital expenditure by US hyperscalers, as it also incorporates AI investment by private companies, non-hyperscaler firms and companies outside the US.

The research estimates that the cumulative investment in AI since 2022 could reach $1.8 trillion by the end of 2026.

Future Projections and Market Uncertainty

Goldman Sachs said the pace and eventual scale of AI investment remain a key uncertainty for macroeconomic and financial markets, particularly as investors assess how high AI capital expenditure could rise as a share of GDP and when its growth could begin to slow.

The bank's projections indicate that AI investment in the US could increase from 1.8 per cent of GDP in 2026 to 2.5 per cent in 2027 and 2.8 per cent in 2028, while global AI investment would rise to 1.4 per cent of GDP by 2028. Goldman Sachs said these levels remain within the historical range observed during previous general-purpose technology buildouts, when peak investment impulses typically reached 2 per cent-5 per cent of GDP. It also noted that consensus expectations for 2027 capital expenditure could prove conservative, leaving scope for upward revisions.

Near-Term Indicators Signal Growth

Near-term indicators point to continued strength in AI-related spending. Goldman Sachs examined indicators including semiconductor manufacturing equipment imports in Taiwan and South Korea, purchasing managers' indices, import prices, memory purchase prices and GPU rental prices. The research found that these indicators are currently near the upper end of their ranges since 2022, providing a positive signal for AI capital expenditure growth.

Report Methodology and Caveats

However, Goldman Sachs cautioned that its estimates involve assumptions that are difficult to verify and carry some risk of double-counting, particularly where companies do not separately report financial leases and hardware capital expenditure. The bank therefore cross-checked its estimates using corporate earnings revisions, government investment data and global trade flows, with these approaches producing broadly similar estimates of around $1 trillion in global AI investment in 2026. (ANI)

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by Asianetnews Editorial staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)