Easing oil prices may help RBI defer rate hike despite high inflation

Despite WPI inflation accelerating to 9.7% in May, a YES Bank report notes that easing global crude oil prices and a stable rupee could soften price risks, allowing the RBI to defer any immediate interest rate hike.

India's wholesale inflationary pressures remain elevated, but easing global crude oil prices and a stable rupee could help soften future price risks, potentially allowing the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to defer any immediate rate hike despite a sharp rise in wholesale price inflation, according to a YES Bank report.

WPI Inflation Accelerates

The report noted that the newly rebased Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation accelerated to 9.7 per cent year-on-year in May from 8.3 per cent in April, reflecting continued input cost pressures across the economy.

The report noted that the newly rebased Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation accelerated to 9.7 per cent year-on-year in May from 8.3 per cent in April, reflecting continued input cost pressures across the economy.

The rise in wholesale inflation was primarily driven by a sharp increase in fuel prices, which climbed 30.3 per cent year-on-year, led by higher prices of petrol, natural gas and mineral oils. Manufacturing inflation also strengthened to 7.5 per cent, indicating broad-based pricing pressures.

Potential Relief from Global Markets

However, the report believes that recent developments in global commodity markets could provide some relief going forward. "There appears to be some respite for global crude oil prices, overall commodity prices and the industrial metals, owing to the announcement of the likely signing of the peace deal between US and Iran," the report said.

According to YES Bank, lower crude oil prices, coupled with the appreciation of the Indian rupee and a weaker US dollar, could reduce imported inflation pressures and lessen the need for fuel price increases by oil marketing companies.

The report further stated that "the current downshift in global crude oil prices and the relative stability of the USD/INR is expected to provide the RBI with a greater comfort in postponing its rate hike decisions greatly into the future."

Monetary Policy Outlook and Risks

In its assessment of monetary policy, the bank has lowered the probability of an August rate hike, citing softer inflation risks and the central bank's ability to wait for greater clarity on weather-related risks.

While headline consumer inflation has remained below the RBI's own projections, the report flagged El Nino-related food inflation and rising household inflation expectations as key risks to monitor in the coming months.

Upcoming Shift to Producer Price Index

The report also highlighted the introduction of the new Producer Price Index (PPI) framework by the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), under which the Output PPI is expected to replace the WPI over the next five years. (ANI)

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