Data centre server electricity use to hit 33% of commercial use by 2050

Data centre server electricity use is set to spike, projected by the US EIA to be 22-33% of commercial building consumption by 2050. The rise is driven by server growth, especially AI infrastructure, and intensive cooling needs.

Electricity consumption by data centre servers is projected to rise sharply in the coming decades, with server electricity use expected to account for 22 per cent to 33 per cent of commercial building electricity consumption by 2050, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Projected Growth by 2050

In its Annual Energy Outlook 2026 (AEO2026), the EIA stated that electricity consumed by data centre servers will continue increasing across the commercial building sector, with the strongest growth expected in standalone data centers compared to other data center rooms combined. It stated "Data centre server electricity use grows to 22%-33% of commercial building electricity use by 2050 across our cases"

The report projected that server electricity consumption alone could reach between 446 billion kilowatthours (BkWh) and 818 billion BkWh by 2050 across different scenarios. The highest estimate reflects faster growth in server power demand and installed server stock under the High Electricity Demand case.

According to the outlook, standalone data centres, which are included in the "other buildings" category, are projected to consume 581 BkWh of electricity from servers alone by 2050 under the High Electricity Demand case.

AI Infrastructure a Key Driver

The report noted that servers accounted for an estimated 7 per cent of total commercial sector electricity consumption in 2025. However, growing deployment of servers, particularly AI-related infrastructure, is expected to significantly increase electricity demand in the coming years.

Rising Commercial Energy Intensity

The EIA stated that commercial sector electricity intensity, measured in kilowatthours consumed per square foot, is projected to exceed the previous historical high of 14.9 kWh per square foot recorded in 2003. The new peak is expected between 2031 and 2032. The report attributed the increase in commercial energy intensity largely to data centre servers and associated systems such as cooling and ventilation required to maintain server operations.

Intensive Cooling Requirements

According to the EIA, data centre servers require intensive cooling systems to ensure chips and IT equipment operate efficiently. The agency estimated that space cooling requirements in data centre floorspace are as much as 2.9 times more energy intensive than non-data centre commercial floorspace on average.

The report also stated that electricity consumption for space cooling in the High Electricity Demand case is projected to be 84 BkWh higher in 2050 compared to the Counterfactual Baseline case, mainly due to more intensive data centre operations.

Consumption to Rise Despite Efficiency Gains

The outlook further stated that under the Counterfactual Baseline case, server efficiency is expected to improve after 2040, resulting in a 10 per cent reduction in average annual operational power draw every three years beyond historical efficiency trends. However, despite efficiency gains, overall electricity consumption is still expected to rise due to continued growth in server installations. (ANI)

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