Punjab Election 2022: AAP in driver's seat as Congress goes downhill, says new opinion poll

The Punjab assembly election could see the downfall of the Congress government, a new Opinion poll has revealed. The poll, conducted by Jan ki Baat-India News, claims that Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party could emerge as the single largest party in the state.

According to the opinion poll, the AAP is seen to be winning 58-65 seats in the 117-member Punjab assembly. The AAP seems to have gained more ground in Punjab, considering that a similar poll conducted in December 2021 gave them 51-57 seats. Either way, the survey findings come as a shot in the arm for the party, which had in its debut elections in 2017, won 20 seats.

The poll data suggests that out of these 58-65 seats, 36-43 seats could come from the Malwa region of the state, followed by 13-15 seats from Manjha and 7-9 from Doab regions. The survey also shows the AAP cornering 38-39 per cent of the vote share. 

Interestingly, women in the state seem to have liked Kejriwal's party, with 48 per cent of the respondents endorsing the AAP. The party also projected to gain massively in terms of caste votes. The poll shows that even as 48 per cent of the Jat respondents support the AAP, the party also finds favour among Scheduled Caste (42 per cent) and Other Backward Class (37 per cent) voters.

Setback for Congress 

The Aam Aadmi Party's gain is the Congress party's loss. According to the latest poll projections, the party's stature has further eroded in the state. One of the significant contributors to this slide could be the recent faceoff with the Centre over Prime Minister Narendra Modi's security lapse. While 60 per cent of those surveyed believed that the security lapse issue could impact voting, 40 per cent felt otherwise. At the same time, 62 per cent of those interviewed believed that the security lapse issue was being politicised.

Overall, Congress is projected to win around 32 to 42 seats with a vote share of nearly 35 per cent. This is a concern for the Congress party, considering that December 2021 projections saw them settling for somewhere between 40-46 seats. 

The poll suggests that the present Congress government's performance is viewed as average, with 43.2 per cent of the respondents terming it so. Another 33.4 per cent of people termed the Charanjit Singh Channi-led government's performance is poor. Only 23.4 per cent of the respondents said that the state government had delivered. 

Inflation (23.4 per cent) is the most significant talking point among voters when it comes to issues that will influence voting outcomes, followed by unemployment (20.8 per cent), development (16 per cent), education (10.2 per cent), drugs menace (8.9 per cent), electricity (7.6 per cent), lack of hospitals (5.5 per cent), agriculture (5.8 per cent) and water (1.1 per cent).

BJP and SAD take a hit too

The growing stature could see the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Shiromani Akali Dal taking a hit. The December opinion poll had projected that the SAD would repeat its 2017 performance (when it won 18 seats in 2017), securing 16-21 seats in 2022, followed by four seats for the BJP. A month later, that projection has been revised to 15-18 for the SAD and one or two seats for the BJP.

Besides AAP's mushrooming stature, the fact that 70 per cent of the respondents believe that the now-repealed farm laws will impact the assembly elections in the state.

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