What the leaked US documents tell us about Ukraine War

By Girish Linganna | First Published Apr 11, 2023, 1:57 PM IST

The leak of top classified US military documents could spell doom for American espionage, at least temporarily, says Girish Linganna

In one of the largest leaks this decade of top classified US military documents, what has come to light could muddy the waters of America's support to Ukraine. Some of the papers that figured on social media sites were meant for people who had the highest levels of clearance in the US security establishment.

The information leaked covers a host of topics -- from how the US assesses the Ukraine war to the intelligence that has been gathered on Ukraine's diplomatic allies in the West. The leak has led to an official investigation by the US Department of Defense.

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According to the New York Times and other publications, the initial documents that were leaked were written in February and March and had estimates of casualties on both sides. It was reported that at least one document seemed to have been changed to show a lower Russian death toll in the war. This puts a question mark on the authenticity of the papers.

The US, it was reported, regularly gathers intelligence on its diplomatic allies, including Israel, South Korea and Ukraine. According to the documents, the US gathers extensive intelligence from the top echelons of the Russian government. This could spell doom for American espionage, at least temporarily!

THE THREE MAIN REVELATIONS

1) Ukraine's Air Defence is at Risk: Ukraine is, at present, using the Soviet-era S-300 and Bulk air defence systems to battle the Russian Air Force. But the leaked papers reveal that the country would likely exhaust its firepower by mid-April or May if it is not supplied with enough munitions. This could provide an impetus to Russia's war effort, and that country could use its fighter jets and bombers to penetrate Ukraine’s feeble air defence to tilt the outcome of the battle in its favour.

2) Ukraine Narrowly Escaped Defeat: The leaked papers reveal that the Russian forces nearly encircled the Ukrainian military in Bakhmut town -- the scene of fierce fighting for several months now -- in late-February 2023. Ukraine's Director of Military Intelligence described the situation as 'catastrophic'. Another senior-ranking Ukrainian military official said the soldiers' morale was low at the time as there was not enough ammunition to carry on the fight. The Ukrainian forces did succeed in the end to push away the Russian troops with the help of its elite units, but the strategic cost for Ukraine was extremely high since it has been looking to save its best-trained and equipped soldiers for a counter-offensive that it expects to come in the next few weeks or months.

3) Russian Incentive to Destroy Tanks: In an attempt to boost the morale of its soldiers, Russia has been offering huge monetary benefits. The leaked papers revealed, 'Financial incentives would be offered for the capture and destruction of foreign tanks, and videos of tanks being destroyed would be widely distributed to reduce the confidence of Ukraine and the West and reassure Russian troops of their ability to overcome this new weaponry.'

SOURCE OF THE LEAK

In the past few weeks, the leaked information has appeared on multiple social media platforms. Bellingcat, an independent investigative news outlet, said the papers seemed to have been posted initially on lesser-known Internet sites, which included a popular messaging site for computer games fans.

The documents attracted closer scrutiny after they were discovered and posted more widely to the far-Right noticeboard, 4Chan, and pro-Russian messaging groups on Telegram.

According to the Times, most of the documents looked like they have been folded up before they were taken. It is highly possible that they were taken from their original location in a pocket or briefcase.

No one has the answer to who leaked them. The method of circulation suggests they were taken away by an American. CNN reported on Sunday that the US Department of Justice had opened an official investigation into their origin.

ARE THEY STILL ON THE INTERNET?

It is extremely unlikely that the documents can now be taken off the sites or hidden since they have been widely shared on the Internet. At least one major social media platform is not game for erasing the documents from its site. The idea of erasing the papers from the Web was ridiculed by its billionaire owner, although the White House's efforts are still on to remove them.

RUSSIAN, US VIEWS ON THE LEAK

Russian State media Sputnik claimed the leak had brought to light the stark opposition in the United States to President Joe Biden's 'Ukraine policy'. A US government spokesman, meanwhile, admitted that the documents showed how closely the US was involved in the Ukraine war.

Pentagon officials admit the papers are genuine, but it looks like they have been edited in some places.

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