What Is Benchmark’s Outlook On Pagaya After Its Q4 Results?

Benchmark lowered its price target on Pagaya Technologies to $33 from $48 while maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating on the shares.

• Benchmark noted that PGY shares plummeted more than 20% after reporting a modest topline miss and issuing softer-than-expected guidance for Q1 2026.
• The selloff in Pagaya's shares was "violent and largely disconnected" from what management said during the company’s earnings call, Benchmark said. 
• Earlier on Monday, Pagaya reported revenue of $321 million, missing Wall Street estimates of $349.5 million, according to data from Fiscal.ai.

Benchmark lowered its price target on Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY), an Israel-based financial services company, to $33 from $48 while maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating on the shares.

The current price target still indicates an upside of about 127% compared to the company’s current share price of $14.52 at the time of writing.

The analyst’s revised price target comes after Pagaya reported fourth-quarter (Q4) earnings results on Monday, reporting revenues that missed Wall Street expectations.

Shares of PGY were down more than 23% at the time of writing.

Analyst Rationale

Benchmark noted that PGY shares plummeted more than 20% after reporting a modest topline miss and issuing softer-than-expected guidance for Q1 2026 network volume, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA, according to TheFly.

The selloff in Pagaya's shares was "violent and largely disconnected" from what management said during the company’s earnings call since what they described was not credit stress or operational slippage experienced directly by the company, Benchmark said.

Instead, it was prudence — a deliberate, preemptive, action aimed at reducing Pagaya's exposure to tail risk, the analyst noted.

Earnings Update

Pagaya reported revenue of $321 million, a growth of about 16.5% from the same period last year. However, it missed Wall Street estimates of $349.5 million, according to data from Fiscal.ai.

Meanwhile, the company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.8, beating analyst estimates of an EPS of $0.77.

For the first quarter of 2026, Pagaya forecasts revenue in the range of $315 million and $335 million, and adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) between $80 million and $95 million.

For the fiscal year 2026, Pagaya forecasts revenue in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.57 billion.

How Did Stocktwits Users React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around PGY shares jumped from ‘bullish’ to ‘extremely bullish’ territory over the past 24 hours.

Meanwhile, message volumes jumped from ‘high’ to ‘extremely high’ territory in the same period.

One bullish user said the selloff was an overreaction, typical for growth stocks.
They said that in their opinion, PGY’s revenue will beat its 2026 target.

Another user said the stock is oversold, noting that it behaved similarly during the last earnings, before reversing course.

Shares of PGY have gained more than 10% in the past year.

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