US Jobs Data Today After Shutdown: What's Missing, What's Not For American Economy

A recent US government shutdown has disrupted economic data collection, creating an incomplete picture of the labor market. The upcoming November jobs report will lack October's unemployment rate, a first since 1948, and other key household data.

The US is set to release its monthly jobs data for November on Tuesday, but this time, the numbers will come with a major caveat. A prolonged government shutdown has disrupted data collection, leaving economists and investors with an incomplete snapshot of the American labour market.

While the headline figures will still be published, several key indicators that usually help explain the economy's direction will be missing.

No October Unemployment Rate: A First in Decades

One of the biggest gaps in the upcoming release is the absence of the unemployment rate for October. Because the household survey could not be conducted during the shutdown, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not report this figure.

This is the first time since 1948 that the US government has failed to publish a monthly unemployment rate.

Along with this, other important household-level data will also be missing, including labour force participation, part-time employment figures, unemployment duration, and demographic breakdowns by age and group.

November Job Growth Expected to Be Weak

Despite the data gaps, economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimate that the US added around 50,000 jobs in November, a slowdown compared to earlier months.

The unemployment rate for November is expected to come in at around 4.5 per cent. While that level is still low by historical standards, it would mark the highest rate since 2021 and continue a gradual upward trend seen over recent months.

For comparison, September saw a much stronger addition of 119,000 jobs, highlighting how dramatically momentum appears to have cooled.

Shutdown Clouds the Bigger Picture

Economists say interpreting this report will be particularly tricky. Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor, told the BBC that government shutdowns are rare, but when they happen, they almost always create uncertainty around official data.

Adding to the confusion, October job numbers were likely distorted by federal workforce reductions. According to Reuters, more than 150,000 federal employees exited their roles after accepting delayed buyout offers as part of efforts to shrink the size of the government. Most of these workers were removed from payrolls at the end of September, affecting employment figures in the following months.

October Inflation Data Also Missing

The shutdown has also left a hole in inflation data. The BLS was forced to skip the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, another highly unusual development.

The agency normally gathers price data through store visits, phone calls and external data sources, but it said most of the non-survey data for October could not be recovered. As a result, the headline inflation rate and core CPI for October will not be released.

While some limited price data for October may be published alongside the November report, the BLS has said this will happen only if the information meets reliability standards. Importantly, it has also warned that it cannot offer clear guidance on how users should interpret the missing data.

Why November Inflation May Look Misleading

Even though November's inflation report will still be released, it will come with limitations. Month-on-month comparisons will not be available for price indexes where October data is missing.

Goldman Sachs has warned that inflation readings could also be skewed. Since prices were mainly collected in the second half of November, when holiday discounts typically begin, inflation could appear lower than it actually is. The firm estimates this could reduce November's core inflation by as much as 0.15 percentage points.

Any weakness that shows up now could reverse in December, once normal data comparisons resume.

What Economists Will Focus On Instead

With headline figures offering only part of the story, economists say the details beneath the surface will matter more than ever.

Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, told CNN that sector-level job trends will be key. Manufacturing and other goods-producing industries are expected to continue losing jobs, while healthcare and parts of the service sector, including restaurants, may keep adding workers.

Wage growth will also be closely watched. Slowing pay increases could dampen consumer spending, which plays a crucial role in sustaining economic growth.

Indeed Hiring Lab economist Cory Stahle added that even if jobs continue to be added, a rising unemployment rate or more people giving up on job searches could eventually weaken the labour market.