TSLA Stock Rises Overnight: Analyst Sees Q2 Delivery Beat, Says SPCX Merger Buzz Is Limiting Downside Risk

Wolfe expects Tesla to deliver 420,000 vehicles in Q2, above the 400,000-unit consensus.

• Wolfe forecasts EPS of $0.50-$0.52 and automotive gross margins in the low-18% range, both ahead of consensus estimates.
• Goldman Sachs recently raised its own Q2 delivery forecast to 420,000 units, citing stronger demand in Europe, China and other international markets.
• Wolfe does not expect any Tesla-SpaceX merger deal before mid-2027 at the earliest.

Shares of Tesla, Inc. rose 1% overnight late Wednesday as analysts grew more confident in a stronger-than-expected second quarter, while Wolfe Research pointed to increasing Tesla-SpaceX merger speculation as an additional source of support for the stock. 

TSLA stock fell 2% on Wednesday to end at $396.38, logging its second straight session in the red. 

Analysts Raise Tesla Q2 Expectations

Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs also lifted its Q2 delivery estimate to 420,000 units, citing stronger demand in Europe, China and other international markets.

Tesla Valuation Hinges On Robotaxis

Despite the upbeat delivery outlook, Wolfe said Tesla's core auto business accounts for only a small portion of its valuation. "The much bigger part, in our view, is tied to confidence around their longer-term (and more significant) initiatives across Robotaxi, Humanoids, and ancillary AI services," the research firm added. 

Wolfe cautioned that execution remains a key risk, noting that deployment curves are proving "shallower than previously expected," particularly in robotaxis. Wolfe expects Tesla to miss its first-half deployment targets. The analyst also flagged intensifying competition from Waymo, which plans to expand into 20 cities this year, Mobileye's robotaxi rollout plans, and the threat of humanoid robotics efforts from Figure AI and Boston Dynamics.

SPCX Merger Buzz Supports Tesla Shares

Wolfe believes Tesla's resilience amid the recent excitement around SpaceX's IPO reflects more than just confidence in quarterly results: "TSLA stock has continued to hold up well even as investors gravitate towards SPCX, with the market assuming increasing likelihood of an eventual TSLA/SPCX merger, which provides downside support." The firm believes any transaction is unlikely before mid-2027 at the earliest.

The theory has gained traction as ties between Musk's companies deepen. Tesla was mentioned 87 times in SpaceX's S-1 filing, while the companies maintain multiple business relationships. Tesla holds a small stake in SpaceX, SpaceX purchases Tesla products including Megapack systems and Cybertrucks, and both companies are collaborating with Intel on the Terafab AI chip initiative.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA was ‘bearish’ amid ‘normal’ message volume.

One user said, “$TSLA If I were elon I'd crash tesla to buy it later with shares of spcx. spcx is the better brand now.”

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Another user said, “People who have invested in TSLA are the same people investing in Space-X. Unfortunately, all money drained into Space-X and due to technicals, this will dump to 350 in days.”

View this Stocktwits post

So far this year, Tesla's stock has lagged its "Magnificent Seven" peers, making it the group's third-worst performer, down about 12%. 

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