TSLA Stock Heads For Worst Single-Day Fall In Over A Year — Wall Street Seeks ‘Tangible’ Robotaxi, Optimus Milestones

While most analysts maintained their ratings, they said rising AI spending is weighing on margins and free cash flow, shifting investor focus to near-term execution.

• Morgan Stanley analysts said that Tesla's accelerating capital expenditure cycle is a "necessary investment" to maintain its leadership in autonomy and robotics.
• The firm said investors are increasingly looking for “tangible” milestones from Tesla's robotaxi and Optimus programs as the company pours billions into AI initiatives.
• Canaccord analysts echoed that view, saying they want to see meaningful robotaxi deployments over the next six months as Tesla seeks to prove its long-term AI strategy.

Wall Street lowered price targets on Tesla Inc. (TSLA) following its second-quarter (Q2) earnings miss, with analysts broadly arguing that the company's AI investments now need to be matched by “tangible” progress in its Robotaxi rollout and milestones in its Optimus program.

While most analysts maintained their ratings, they said rising spending on AI infrastructure, Full Self-Driving, Optimus and other long-term projects is weighing on margins and free cash flow, shifting investor focus from Tesla's long-term vision to near-term execution.

Tesla shares were down more than 12% in Thursday’s opening trade, with the stock on track for its worst single-day decline since June 2025. TSLA was the top trending ticker on Stocktwits at the time of writing.

Analysts Say TSLA’s AI Spending Is Necessary, But Eyes Are Now On Execution

According to TheFly, Morgan Stanley analysts said that Tesla's accelerating capital expenditure cycle is a "necessary investment" to maintain its leadership in autonomy and robotics, even as the spending pushes free cash flow further into negative territory.

However, the firm said investors are increasingly looking for “tangible” milestones from Tesla's robotaxi and Optimus programs as the company pours billions into AI initiatives.

Morgan Stanley lowered its price target to $400 from $417 while maintaining an ‘Equal Weight’ rating.

Canaccord analysts echoed that view, saying they want to see meaningful robotaxi deployments over the next six months as Tesla seeks to prove its long-term AI strategy. The firm also wants to see more momentum around a merger with Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX), and a boost in the company’s core business of electric vehicles.

Canaccord trimmed its price target on Tesla shares to $410 from $450 while keeping a ‘Buy’ rating.

Wall Street Remains Optimistic Despite Trimming TSLA Stock Price Targets

Cantor Fitzgerald kept its ‘Overweight’ rating despite lowering its price target to $485 from $510, saying it still views fiscal 2026 as a potentially transformational year for Tesla, driven by autonomy, artificial intelligence, robotics and custom chips.

The firm added that its estimates remain conservative pending further details on the Semi, Cybercab and Optimus programs.

JPMorgan maintained its ‘Neutral’ rating while trimming its price target to $445 from $475, citing weaker automotive gross margins, lower regulatory credit revenue, higher financing costs and warranty headwinds.

The firm added that broader robotaxi deployment and Cybercab production could provide downside support for the stock.

Musk Says TSLA Seeing A ‘Very High Take-Rate’ For FSD

During a post-earnings call with analysts, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that the company is seeing a “very high take-rate” for the Full-Self Driving (FSD) technology.

“I think for a lot of people, they're actually buying Tesla Full Self-Driving with a car attached, as opposed to a car with FSD. They're coming into our stores in the U.S. and telling me they want the Full Self-Driving and with whatever car it comes with, essentially,” he said.

Musk also expressed confidence that Tesla’s capex investments will yield “incredible” returns, while adding that 2026 is a “massive capex year.”

“We are going as fast as humanly possible in scaling robotaxi, while trying to ensure that we do not harm anyone at all, and ideally, not even run over a pet,” he added.

What Retail Investors Think Of TSLA Stock

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around Tesla trended in the ‘neutral’ territory at the time of writing.

One user believes that Tesla’s shares will fall below $300 by the end of the day.

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TSLA stock is down 27% year-to-date and 1% over the past 12 months. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up 17% over the past 12 months, while the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) is up 24%.

The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (VTI) and the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) are up 17% during this period.

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