Trump Tariffs: China Surprises With April Exports, US Hopes For ‘Good Weekend’ Talks In Geneva
Synopsis
Exports from the world's second-largest economy rose 8.1% year-over-year in April.
China appears to be holding its ground against President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs — at least for now — as the latest monthly export data showed unexpected resilience.
According to customs data released Friday, exports from the world's second-largest economy rose 8.1% year-over-year in April. While that marked a slowdown from the 12.4% jump in March, it still far outpaced the Reuters forecast of just 1.9%.
Shipments to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations surged 20.8%, up from 11.6% growth in March. Vietnam and Malaysia remained key destinations, but China's exports to Indonesia and Thailand spiked 37% and 28%, respectively.
Elsewhere, exports to the European Union grew 8.3% year-on-year, while imports from the bloc slumped 16.5%.
However, according to CNBC's calculations, U.S.-bound exports plunged more than 21%, with imports from America falling nearly 14%.
The trade data lands as Trump's 145% tariffs on all Chinese imports begin to bite, met by China's retaliatory 125% duties on U.S. goods.
The toll is showing: China's factory activity saw its sharpest contraction in 16 months in April, while U.S. first-quarter GDP shrank 0.3% amid an import surge.
Still, talks may be inching forward. Speaking Thursday ahead of the Geneva talks, Trump hinted that tariff relief could be on the horizon: "You can't get any higher — it's at 145%, so we know it's coming down," he said. "I think we are going to have a good weekend with China."
Trump added that China "very much wants to make a deal," and even quipped, "Better go buy stocks now." According to sources cited by the New York Post, U.S. officials are discussing a proposal to cut tariffs on Chinese goods to 50%-54%.
While U.S. markets have stumbled in 2025, with the S&P 500 down over 4% and the Nasdaq Composite off more than 8%, Chinese markets and equity-focused ETFs have rallied.
The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) is up over 16% year-to-date, while the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) has gained about 15%.
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