Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Could Unlock $15B Annual Windfall For Amazon, Morgan Stanley Says — Retail Stays Cautious Ahead Of Q2 Print

According to the firm, most of the benefit will be invested in Amazon Web Services and generative AI offerings in retail.

E-commerce giant Amazon, Inc. (AMZN) would be the biggest beneficiary of the pull-forward effect from President Donald Trump’s tax bill, a Wall Street firm said in a note released Sunday.

Morgan Stanley analysts believe Trump’s “one big, beautiful” tax bill will bring in billions of dollars of cash flow for big tech companies such as Amazon, Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), and Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL) (GOOG), the Fly reported. 

Amazon is expected to generate a windfall of $15 billion in annual free cash flow between 2025 and 2027, with the benefit gradually tapering off to $11 billion in 2028, the research firm said. The incremental cash flow is likely to result from Amazon’s substantial capital expenditures on data centers, logistics, and R&D, it added.

According to the firm, most of the benefit will be invested in Amazon Web Services (AWS) and generative AI (GenAI) offerings in retail, including robotics, grocery, logistics, and same-day delivery. The firm’s analysts believe investing even 50% of the annual cash flow into AWS can lead the company through a much faster path to “billions of automation savings.”

Morgan Stanley has an ‘Overweight’ rating on Amazon shares and a $300 price target for the firm, implying an upside potential of 30% from Friday’s close.

On Stocktwits, sentiment toward Amazon stock was ‘neutral’ early Monday, with the message volume staying at ‘normal’ levels.

Big tech firms are poised to gain from several provisions of the bill, according to a Verge report. These include those allowing larger R&D write-offs and changes made to tax-saving adjustments, as well as an extension that allows for the reduced international tax rates currently in effect.

The Jeff Bezos-founded company is scheduled to report its second-quarter results after the market closes on Thursday. The consensus estimates call for quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $1.31 on revenue of $162.02 billion, according to the Fiscal.ai-compiled consensus. This compares to the year-ago numbers of $1.26 and $147.98 billion, respectively.

Amazon stock has increased by about 5.5% this year. In Monday’s early premarket trading, the stock rose about half a percent to $232.65.

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