Tom Lee Says ‘Economists Are Fighting Last Year’s Wars’ As Fundstrat’s 2% Bitcoin Bet Swells To 85%

Tom Lee said inflation may be less severe than economists think while he remained bullish on Ethereum.

• Bitmine Immersion’s Tom Lee said about 60% of the gap between core PCE and core CPI is driven by portfolio fees and flash memory prices, which he said do not reflect household inflation. 
• Fundstrat’s 2% Bitcoin recommendation has grown to more than 85% of some client portfolios because of Bitcoin's price rise. 
• Lee said crypto may have already hit a bottom and also gave a positive outlook for Ethereum. 

Fundstrat Global Advisors' Tom Lee said he thinks “economists are fighting last year's wars”, arguing they are misreading today's inflation picture. Two odd-ball price categories, portfolio management fees and flash memory, make up about 60% of the gap between core price index (CPI) and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), Lee said, which helps explain why the Fed's preferred inflation measure looks hotter than the inflation households actually feel.

Speaking in an interview with Wealthion, published Friday, Lee said, "I think economists are fighting last year's wars.” Lee said adviser fees are charged as a percentage of assets, so they rise when markets rise. PCE counts them, whereas CPI barely does. "The average American doesn't actually think there's inflation just because the stock market went up and they have to pay their advisor more money," Lee said. 

Lee said Chip prices have also spiked, which shows up in PCE but not CPI. “Is the average American saying inflation went up on me because flash memory prices are going through the roof?” “No, of course not,” he added. "Strip both out," Lee said, "and core CPI is close enough to the Fed's target that aggressive tightening isn't needed."

Fundstrat’s 2% Bitcoin Bet Grows To 85%

Lee said in a statement that a 2% Bitcoin (BTC) position the firm suggested more than a decade ago is now held by more than 85% of the average client account that followed the suggestion. 

Lee said the increase was due solely to price appreciation, not additional purchases. "Our original recommendation for a 2% position, for the average account for Fund Strat that actually took our advice, is now over 85% of their portfolio," he said. According to Lee, his clients did not buy more Bitcoin. They held the 2%, “and Bitcoin's gone up a lot in price.”

Lee said that about 80% to 90% of retail investors have no exposure to crypto, with many holding gold instead. The choice before them was simple, added Lee. "Do they want to be right or do they want to make money?" 

Bitcoin’s price was trading at $77,294, down by 0.5% in the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around Bitcoin dipped to ‘extremely bearish’ from ‘bearish,' with chatter remaining at ‘low’ levels over the last 24 hours.

Lee Sees Crypto Rebound, Backs Ethereum

Lee said crypto is entering a bullish stretch. He pointed to the 4-year cycle bottom expected in October, leverage has increased since last year's liquidation, and there are early signs of Korean investors borrowing to buy crypto again. This rally has been going on for 6 weeks, which, he said, means the bottom has already been hit. 

In terms of rules, Lee said that the CLARITY Act is not necessary. In any case, the only two agencies that are involved are the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). He said the legislation would make the CFTC the primary crypto regulator. Without it, he compared crypto's position to the prediction markets, "which boomed anyway."  

Lee also expressed a bullish outlook on Ethereum (ETH) during the interview. Lee is Chairman of BitMine (BMNR), a company that holds Ethereum (ETH) as part of its treasury strategy. As of last week, BitMine holds about 5.93 million ETH, equal to roughly 4.9% of Ethereum’s supply. He said several market and industry trends could support ETH and strengthen its outlook.

Ethereum’s price was trading at $2,539, up by 1%. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around Ethereum remained in the ‘bearish’ zone, while the chatter stayed at ‘normal’ levels over the past day.

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