Tesla Stock Rises Premarket: Cathie Wood's ARK Shrugs Off FSD Subscriptions, Says Robotaxi Drives 90% Of Value

ARK’s comments on Tesla’s autonomy plans follow the company’s recent shift in its Full Self-Driving strategy.

• ARK said 2026 could be a key year as Tesla advances next-generation FSD and robotaxi testing.
• Tesla remains the largest holding in the ARK Innovation ETF, accounting for about 10% of the portfolio.
• Analysts were divided on the FSD shift, with calls ranging from downgrades to warnings of a fading tech edge.

Tesla Inc. shares rose nearly 1% in premarket trading on Wednesday after Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management said the EV maker’s long-term valuation is unlikely to hinge on Full Self-Driving subscriptions, arguing instead that Tesla’s fleet-based robotaxi business could ultimately dominate its enterprise value.

Robotaxi Over Subscriptions

In a note from Ark’s autonomous technology and robotics team on X, the firm said it does not include FSD subscriptions in its public Tesla valuation model, as it believes this business line will be dwarfed by Tesla’s robotaxi service.

Ark said a fleet-based robotaxi model could generate thousands of dollars in cash flow per vehicle per year. The firm said 2026 is emerging as a pivotal year for Tesla, as the company advances its 14th-generation FSD system, rolls out unsupervised robotaxi operations in Austin, and carries out Cybercab testing ahead of a planned production launch in the second quarter.

Ark estimates that Tesla’s robotaxi business could make up roughly 90% of the company’s enterprise value by 2029. Tesla is the largest holding in the Ark Innovation ETF, accounting for about 10% of the portfolio over the past year. The position was valued at $419.25 and declined about 1.7%, or 23 basis points, over the past 12 months.

FSD Moves To Subscription-Only

Last week, CEO Elon Musk said Tesla will stop selling Full Self-Driving for a one-time fee and will make the technology available solely through a $99-per-month subscription model in the U.S. starting Feb. 14. Currently, customers can purchase FSD (Supervised) for $8,000 upfront or subscribe monthly.

Ark said the shift aligns with milestones in Musk’s 2025 CEO performance package, which includes a target of reaching 10 million active FSD subscriptions, and also comes amid regulatory pressure in California tied to FSD marketing practices.

Analysts Weigh In On FSD Strategy

Future Fund LLC managing partner Gary Black said Tesla should consider lowering the monthly FSD subscription price to boost adoption.

“IMO $TSLA should use FSD to sell more Teslas,” Black wrote on X.

GLJ Research said the move to a subscription-only model ends the long-standing thesis that FSD is an appreciating asset. The firm said the shift signals that the software does not carry asset-like economics, adding that Tesla’s earlier narrative around FSD appreciation “now looks retired.” GLJ maintains a ‘Sell’ rating on Tesla.

Meanwhile, Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management CEO Ross Gerber said on X that the pricing change is the “first step to Tesla giving away the software as it becomes standard on vehicles over the next five years.” He added that Tesla’s technology edge is fading.

How Did Stocktwits Users React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Tesla was ‘bearish’ amid ‘low’ message volume.

Tesla’s stock has declined nearly 2% over the past 12 months.

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