Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries Beat UBS’ Estimates — But Energy Storage Miss Keeps This Analyst Neutral

UBS said the energy business can be difficult to forecast because deployment timing is often uneven.

• The automaker delivered 486,532 vehicles in Q3, about 5% above UBS’ consensus, according to investing.com.
• Tesla deployed 13.7 GWh of energy-storage products, up from 13.5 GWh in Q2 and 12.5 GWh a year earlier
• The brokerage said buyside expectations had been rising ahead of the deliveries report.

Tesla (TSLA) remained on investors’ radar on Monday after better-than-expected third-quarter deliveries last Friday, though UBS said the beat was partially offset by weaker energy storage deployments.

At the time of writing, TSLA shares were up 2%.

UBS Sees Sustained Rebound In Vehicle Deliveries

Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter (Q3), about 5% above UBS’ consensus, according to investing.com. Model 3 and Model Y accounted for 478,237 of those deliveries.

The EV maker also produced 464,391 vehicles during the quarter, including 457,387 Model 3 and Model Y units. Deliveries rose about 1.3% from the previous quarter, while production increased nearly 3%.

However, deliveries were still about 2% below the same period last year, when Tesla posted its highest-ever quarterly deliveries.

UBS said buyside expectations had been rising ahead of the deliveries report and noted that the latest numbers showed a continued rebound in vehicle deliveries.

Energy Storage Comes In Below Expectations

Tesla deployed 13.7 GWh of energy-storage products, up from 13.5 GWh in the second quarter (Q2) and 12.5 GWh a year earlier. Still, the figure came in below expectations.

UBS said the energy business can be difficult to forecast because deployment timing is often uneven. Since the segment carries above-average gross margins, the shortfall is expected to have a small impact on its model, worth roughly $0.03, UBS said.

The firm reiterated a ‘Neutral’ rating on Tesla with a $385 price target, implying around 1.7% upside from current levels.

Analysts Still Split On The Bigger Picture

Earlier, Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster said the delivery data suggested the “EV winter” may be thawing, but Ross Gerber, CEO and co-founder of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, was more cautious, noting that Tesla’s current annualized delivery pace remains below 2 million vehicles.

JPMorgan also said Q3 sales were better than expected, helped by markets outside the U.S. and China, including stronger trends in Europe. However, the firm kept its below-consensus estimates due to expectations for lower automotive gross margins and higher spending. It also maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating and kept its $415 price target unchanged.

Retail’s Take On TSLA

Retail sentiment surrounding TSLA on Stocktwits remained in the ‘bullish’ zone over the past 24 hours.

One user expects the stock to run up to $420 ahead of its Q3 earnings on October 21.

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Another user expects the stock to climb to $384 by the next session if it breaks the $378.56 resistance.

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Despite the recent recovery, TSLA is down 13% so far in 2026 and is the only stock in the Magnificent 7 cohort trading in the red.

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