Shopify Stock To Rally 15% More? Analyst Sees Boost From OpenAI’s ChatGPT Checkout Rollback

OpenAI is tweaking ChatGPT’s e-commerce flow so that checkouts occur within partner apps plugged into ChatGPT, rather than directly inside the chatbot, as previously planned.

• OpenAI’s tweak is a net positive for Shopify, Jefferies says.
• Shopify’s AI e-commerce and recent AI investment make it the ‘go-to agent-enablement toolkit for merchants.’
• Stocktwits sentiment for SHOP ‘bearish’ as the stock continues to be under pressure over profit worries.

Jefferies believes Shopify, Inc. could benefit from OpenAI’s decision to roll back plans to facilitate checkout within its ChatGPT chatbot, a move that could steer more customers and merchants toward Shopify’s solutions.

The Information reported on Wednesday that OpenAI is tweaking its commerce flow to have checkouts take place within specific apps that plug into ChatGPT, rather than allowing users to make purchases directly from product listings that appear in ChatGPT search results.

The AI giant had partnered with Etsy, Shopify, and Stripe for the checkout feature, touting it as a major business opportunity when it was announced six months ago.

Jefferies said changes in OpenAI checkout reinforce Shopify's competitive position within the agentic commerce ecosystem and highlight the strength of its e-commerce infrastructure, according to Jefferies investor note summarized on The Fly. 

Wall Street Mostly Bullish On SHOP

Shopify’s continued investment in AI has positioned it to become the infrastructure layer for agentic commerce and the "go-to agent-enablement toolkit for merchants." The firm raised its price target on SHOP shares to $150 from $125, implying more than 15% upside from the last close, while keeping a ‘Hold’ rating.

Currently, 38 of 51 analysts recommend ‘Buy’ or higher on the stock, 12 recommend ‘Hold,’ and one recommends ‘Sell,’ according to Koyfin. Their average price target of 159.51 implies a 22% upside from the last close.

AI Investments Hurting Shopify Profits?

Shopify has delivered consistently strong results in recent quarters, but the stock has come under pressure, partly as investors worry that heavy spending on AI could dent profits amid a broader perception that an AI bubble may be forming.

On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment was ‘bearish’ as of early Monday, with some comments forecasting a potential uptick. “$SHOP slowly building momentum. Not explosive but the structure looks much healthier than a few weeks ago,” a retail trader said.

Shopify shares are down 19% year-to-date.

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