OPEC Reaffirms Global Oil Demand Growth Of 1.3 Million BPD This Year

The expected demand for crude in 2026, estimated at 43 million bpd, would result in a marginal surplus of about 20,000 bpd, OPEC said

• Oil production in October slipped by 73,000 bpd to 43.02 million barrels per day.
• OPEC reaffirmed its forecast of global oil demand growth of 1.3 million barrels per day this year.
• OPEC trimmed forecast for 2026 demand for OPEC+ crude by 100,000 bpd following higher non-OPEC production estimates.

Global oil markets are expected to move into balance next year as production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers rises, marking a shift from previous projections of a supply deficit, according to the group’s latest monthly report released on Wednesday.

OPEC reaffirmed its forecast of global oil demand growth of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and at a slightly faster pace in 2026. However, the group noted that crude oil production by the OPEC+ members decreased by 73,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October to 43.02 million bpd.

2026 Estimates

With global oil demand in 2026 expected to reach 43 million barrels per day, OPEC forecasts a small surplus of approximately 20,000 barrels per day, given current production rates. This marks a shift from last month’s forecast of a 50,000-barrel deficit.

OPEC trimmed its forecast for 2026 demand for OPEC+ crude by 100,000 bpd following higher non-OPEC production estimates, particularly from the United States, Reuters reported on Wednesday.

In October, U.S. crude imports fell to 5.6 million bpd, while crude exports from the U.S. reached an eight-month high of 4.2 million bpd. The U.S. also became the first country to export 10 million metric tonnes (mmt) of liquefied natural gas in a single month.

IEA Forecast

While OPEC’s estimates are close to those of other forecasters, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects a significantly larger surplus of up to 4 million bpd in 2026, nearly 4% of global demand.

At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading 3% lower at $63.42.

Separately, OPEC+ members, which include Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the U.A.E., are set to review their production policy at their next meeting on November 30, in a bid to balance market share and address oversupply. The group reportedly plans to pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026 amid growing signs of potential oversupply.

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