Nifty Watch: Short-Covering Rally May Extend, But Only If 25,000 Breaks Convincingly, Say SEBI RAs

Market bias turned cautiously positive as technical support zones held firm. However, analysts warn of range-bound moves unless Nifty breaks out beyond 25,250.

After three days of continuous decline, the Nifty 50 staged a relief rally, reclaiming the 24,800 level on Tuesday. 

According to SEBI-registered analyst Mayank Singh Chandel, the bounce reflected short-covering and support-based buying near the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, sustained strength will only be seen once Nifty reclaims 24,964, followed by a breakout above the key 25,000–25,250 zone. 

He added that 24,650–24,600 continues to hold well, acting as the base for any recovery. For Wednesday’s session, if the Nifty index trades and sustains above 24,884, we may see a short-term rally toward 25,000. However, failure to cross this mark could invite renewed selling pressure. 

In the short-term, a close above 25,000 will be a positive signal and could open gates for 25,200 in the near term. Until then, Chandel expects a consolidation range between 24,650 and 25,000, with a cautious bullish bias. He identified support at 24,650, 24,600 and 24,500, with resistance at 24,964, 25,000 and 25,250.

According to analyst Dipak Takodara, the breakout above the 24,750–24,718 resistance zone is a positive development, and this level now acts as immediate support.

On the upside, the index now faces a cluster of resistance zones at 24,917–24,882, followed by the 50-DMA zone of 25,000–25,050, and then the 25,206–25,245 region. On the downside, if the support at 24,750-24,718 fails again, the index could slide to 24,467–24,377. 

Takodara concluded that if the index can follow through and close above 24,917, it could open the door to test the 50-DMA and 25,200 zones. However, failure to hold above 24,750 may once again expose it to weakness toward 24,467.

Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services highlighted that the market bias switched from negative to positive, triggered by support at the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA). The market reversed direction once it cleared the negative trendline, the 20 EMA on the 15-minute timeframe, and resistance from previous peaks, advancing confidently past the 24,800 level.

Looking ahead, a bullish engulfing candle formation on the daily chart suggests the index may attempt to climb above the 25,000 mark in a positional timeframe. But caution is advised as there may be opportunities to ‘sell on rise’, especially with just two days remaining before the monthly expiry.

For intraday levels, Sharma identified immediate resistance at 24,840 followed by a resistance zone at 24,880 to 24,920, then around the 50-day EMA near 24,940. If the index breaches these levels, it could test 25,000 and beyond. On the downside, immediate support lies at 24,780, with further support at 24,720, 24,650, 24,580, and 24,500 if the price declines.

The markets saw a classic pre-expiry consolidation session on Tuesday with both Nifty and Bank Nifty closing just above their respective Central Pivot Range (CPR) pivots, said SEBI-registered analyst Pradeep Carpenter.

Despite the mild intraday swings, broader sentiment stayed neutral-to-cautious due to the upcoming US Fed decision, monthly expiry, and ongoing global consolidation. Most traders avoided directional commitments, and the India VIX falling 4% to 11.52 confirmed that, he added. 

Nifty hovered within a narrow CPR range and closed just above its pivot level of 24,755. This signals indecision, but the narrow CPR width (~65 points) hints at a possible volatile move on Wednesday if key levels break. 

Bank Nifty followed a similar path, closing above its pivot at 56,120 – signaling a likely trending move once it breaches either side. Both indices are in a “wait-and-watch” zone, requiring a decisive confirmation before any directional trade. Options data sets up a tight expiry range between 24,700 and 25,000. 

For Wednesday’s session, the Nifty is expected to stay in a 300-point band between 24,700 and 25,000. A breakout above 24,788 could trigger momentum toward 25,004 or 25,161, but until that happens, it remains range-bound. Below 24,723, weakness may intensify toward 24,663 or 24,506. 

BankNifty holds a similarly defined expiry zone between 56,000 and 57,000. A push above 56,400 can open the path to 56,573 and 56,850. However, a break below 56,069 may invite profit-booking down to 55,944 or even 55,667. 

Carpenter cautioned against aggressive options selling, noting that premiums are low and the chances of a breakout are high due to narrow CPR and low implied volatility. He suggested that if the VIX begins to rise in the morning, traders should switch to a breakout mindset; if it remains muted, range scalping would be more effective.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<