Nifty At Crossroads: SEBI RAs Flag 25,000 As Make-Or-Break Level Ahead Of Expiry

The Nifty is trading in a tight band ahead of expiry, with analysts highlighting key resistance at 25,000 and support near 24,400. While technical indicators show strength, options data hints at volatility and a possible breakout on either side.

As the Indian equity market heads into an expiry session, the Nifty 50 finds itself at a pivotal technical and psychological juncture. 

Analysts point to a stable-to-positive sentiment backed by easing WPI inflation and robust technical structure — but also flag rising volatility and mixed cues from derivatives.

SEBI-registered analyst Bharat Sharma noted that the index has been respecting the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) as a firm support and continues to trade above the 20- and 50-period EMAs—signals of sustained momentum. 

He marked immediate support at 24,650 and stronger support at 24,550 (the 100 EMA). 

A break below this could expose the index to deeper levels: 24,480, 24,430, 24,400, and potentially 24,300. 

On the upside, immediate resistance was seen at 24,700, with potential for scalping opportunities above this level towards 24,750–24,820, a zone that had previously proven to be strong resistance. 

He suggested that a sustained move above 24,820 could open the way for a rally toward 25,000 and beyond.

However, Sharma cautioned that the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stands at a bearish 0.7, with aggressive call and put writing indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. 

Elevated options premiums for at-the-money strikes suggest that the market is bracing for sharp directional swings.

Echoing this view, Dipak Takodara described Nifty’s current range—between 24,450 and 25,000—as a compression zone. 

He stated that a close above 25,000 could trigger a rally toward 25,200–25,300, and possibly up to 25,750 if momentum continues. 

Conversely, a breakdown below 24,350 would likely lead to accelerated selling toward 24,200–24,000.

With expiry volatility peaking and traders positioned on both sides, the coming sessions could see high-stakes price action. A breakout beyond 25,000 or a breach of 24,350 may set the tone for the next market trend.

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