Michael Burry Shifts Bearish Bets To Nasdaq, Semiconductor ETF Puts — Sees Market Top Within 9 Months

The noted investor targets tech-heavy indexes and semiconductor stocks as he braces for a potential market downturn.

• Burry’s Nasdaq-100 puts expire in April 2027, while his SMH options run through June 2027.
• The investor continues to hold long-dated bearish bets on Oracle and Palantir despite the latter’s recent record-high close.
• SMH has surged over 67% year to date, while retail sentiment remains ‘bearish’ on the ETF.

Michael Burry, the investor known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis by identifying massive flaws in the U.S. subprime mortgage market, has consolidated most of his bearish bets into put options on the Nasdaq-100 Index and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), anticipating a potential market top within the next nine months.

In his latest Substack post, published on Sunday, Burry said he had moved most of his previous short positions into options, with puts on the Nasdaq-100 and SMH now accounting for almost his entire short exposure.

A put option gives an investor the right to sell a stock or index at a predetermined price by a specified date, allowing them to profit if its price falls.

Burry Consolidates Bearish Tech Bets

Burry said his Nasdaq-100 puts expire in April 2027 and described the position as relatively inexpensive amid low volatility and aligned with his investment timeline.

“I believe we are within 0-9 months of a significant top,” Burry wrote, adding that the final months of the bull market could be volatile as major indices have broken through to new highs.

Burry said SMH offers concentrated exposure to some of the market’s hottest and most overextended semiconductor stocks, making it an attractive vehicle for his bearish bets.

Nvidia (NVDA) accounts for 19.6% of the ETF, followed by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) at 9.3% and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) at 5.6%, according to Burry. Broadcom, Micron Technology, Marvell Technology and Applied Materials each account for positions of around 5%.

“At the moment, almost my entire short position is expressed through SMH and NDX puts,” he wrote.

Burry’s SMH puts expire in June 2027 and are also roughly 20% out of the money. He expects their value to rise significantly before the underlying ETF or the Nasdaq-100 falls 20%.

Burry’s Other Bearish Bets Remain

Burry said he continues to hold long-dated puts on Oracle (ORCL) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). He closed his other short positions, moving them into NDX and SMH puts.

On Palantir, Burry acknowledged that the stock recently closed at a record high and could rally further. The stock has doubled since June, when he covered half his short position, before exiting the remainder as he shifted to put options, according to his blog post.

He also said he “purchased several series of preferred, and sold out” of Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) common stock positions to realize the full tax loss in the mortgage ‘Twins.’

Retail View On Burry’s Focus Equities 

On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment was ‘bearish’ for SMH, and ‘bullish’ for Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ), which tracks Nasdaq-100 stocks. The sentiment was ‘bearish’ for Oracle and ‘extremely bullish’ for PLTR.

Year to date, SMH is up over 67%, while PLTR and ORCL are up 17.6% and down 26.5%, respectively.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<