MAT Shares Sink After Earnings Miss Spurs Dual Wall Street Downgrades

JPMorgan downgraded the stock to ‘Underweight’ from ‘Neutral’ and pointed to limited clarity around a rebound in Barbie sales as a key risk factor.

• Citi cut its rating on Mattel, downgrading the stock to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ and slashed its price target to $16 from $25.
• Citi said its investment case shifted “suddenly and substantially” after reviewing the company’s latest quarterly results.
• Roth Capital analyst Eric Handler cut his price target on Mattel to $16 from $22 and added that expectations for a strong 2026 have faded.

Shares of Mattel Inc. (MAT) came under renewed pressure after two major Wall Street banks lowered their ratings on the toymaker, citing reduced earnings visibility and concerns about future sales momentum. 

The downgrades follow the company’s recent fourth-quarter report, which prompted analysts to reassess their outlook for the iconic brand owner.

In Q4, Mattel’s sales rose 7% year-on-year to $1.77 billion with an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.39. Both revenue and EPS came in below the analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.83 billion and $0.55, respectively, according to Fiscal AI data. 

Mattel stock traded over 26% lower in Wednesday’s premarket. 

Citi, JPMorgan Revise Rating

Citi cut its rating on Mattel, downgrading the stock to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’, slashing its price target to $16 from $25, according to TheFly. The firm said its investment case shifted “suddenly and substantially” after reviewing the company’s latest quarterly results and trimming longer-term forecasts. 

Citi now expects 2026 to focus heavily on spending and strategic repositioning rather than near-term earnings expansion.

JPMorgan also downgraded the stock to ‘Underweight’ from ‘Neutral’ and reduced its price target to $14 from $23. The firm cited limited clarity about a rebound in Barbie sales as a key risk factor. 

Roth Capital Cuts Price Target 

Roth Capital analyst Eric Handler cut his price target on Mattel to $16 from $22 and maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating. He said expectations for a strong 2026 have faded, as sales growth now looks likely to come in below 2% and remain roughly in line with levels seen in 2021 and 2022.

The dual downgrades and price target cuts underscore mounting skepticism about Mattel’s growth trajectory following a period of heightened demand tied to its flagship brands.

Retail Traders Turn Optimistic

However, on Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the stock changed to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘bullish’ territory the previous day. Message volume shifted to ‘extremely high’ from ‘normal’ levels in 24 hours. 

MAT stock has declined by 3% in the last 12 months. 

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