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The company aims to win in its two primary growth engines: retail in North America and hospitality in Europe.
Lightspeed Commerce, Inc. (LSPD) shares fell about 2% on Wednesday despite the Montreal-based e-commerce platform’s upbeat commentary at the Capital Markets Day event. The company’s guidance reduction announced earlier this week prompted sell-side analysts to temper their opinions on the stock.
In a statement released before the event, the company said its focused and disciplined approach will help accelerate customer location growth, expand subscription average revenue per user (ARPU) and drive profitable growth over the next three years.
The company aims to win in its two primary growth engines, namely retail in North America and hospitality in Europe.
It expects to grow gross profit for the primary growth engines at a three-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 20%-25% from 2026 to 2028. The total gross profit is expected to grow at a three-year CAGR of 15%-18%, hitting $700 million by the fiscal year 2028.
Net customer locations for its primary growth engines will likely grow at a three-year CAGR of 10%-15%.
Lightspeed Commerce guided top total adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) to about 35% over the same period and adjusted free cash flow to about $100 million in 2026.
The company’s board approved the renewal of its normal course issuer bid for repurchasing an additional 9.01 million shares, valued at about $95 million, as part of an overall repurchase authorization of up to $400 million.
On Monday, Lightspeed Commerce revised down its fiscal year 2025 revenue outlook to reflect year-over-year growth of about 18% from the previously expected 20%, citing macroeconomic headwinds.
The company noted that deteriorating macroeconomic conditions that dented consumer confidence have led to a decline in same-store sales through February and March to date. Declining small business optimism dampened new business formation, it added.
As such, these factors have exerted significant pressure on transaction-based revenue and, to a lesser extent, on subscription revenue.
However, the company said it remains focused on profitable growth and was proactively managing costs. It continues to expect 2025 adjusted EBITDA of over $53 million.
On Wednesday, ATB Capital downgraded Lightspeed Commerce stock to ‘Sector Perform’ from ‘Outperform’ with a C$17 price target ($11.91), TheFly reported.
Separately, Benchmark reduced the stock's price target to $16 from $21 but maintained a ‘Buy’ rating.
The downward price target adjustment reflected estimate-reductions, factoring in the impact of macroeconomic headwinds on transaction volumes. The brokerage said it was "encouraged by the apparent feasibility of management's plans to reinvigorate growth while enhancing profitability.”
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward the stock stayed ‘extremely bullish’ (89/100) and the message volume remained ‘extremely high.’
A bullish watcher was left impressed with the management commentary during the event and said they expect the stock to recover as the company progresses against the plan.
Lightspeed Commerce stock is down about 35% so far this year.
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