JD.com Is Testing Retail Investor Nerves: Wall Street’s 2026 Outlook Turns A Bit Bleaker

JD’s U.S.-listed stock has repeatedly failed to break above $30, underperforming peers Alibaba and Baidu this year.

• So far this year, JD.com shares have gained nearly 4% while Alibaba’s stock has jumped nearly 17% and Baidu’s shares have soared 20%.
• Bank of America on Monday cut its adjusted net profit estimates for JD.com due to higher consumer incentives and food-delivery losses.
• Earlier in the month, HSBC noted that overall margin could improve in 2026 due to reduced losses from food delivery and more targeted spending on overseas expansion.

U.S.-listed shares of JD.com were down more than 2% in overnight trading on Tuesday and were on track for a third consecutive session of losses. Retail traders have grown increasingly frustrated that the stock’s underperformance has become apparent, with shares largely confined to a narrow trading range of $30 or below since mid-November.

The Chinese e-commerce giant is also facing headwinds from Beijing, with reports suggesting that Chinese regulators are considering banning major online platforms, including JD.com and rival Alibaba, from pressuring merchants to offer discounts or engage in practices deemed disruptive to market competition.

One user on Stocktwits pointed out that JD.com’s shares have come within cents of the $30 level multiple times but have repeatedly failed to push past it, even as the Hang Seng Index traded higher, underscoring the stock’s relative underperformance.

So far this year, JD.com shares have gained nearly 4% while Alibaba’s stock has jumped nearly 17% and Baidu’s shares have soared 20%.

Wall Street View

Bank of America lowered the price target on JD.com to $36 from $38 and maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on Monday, according to The Fly. After revising 2025, 2026, and 2027 revenue growth estimates to 13%, 6%, and 8%, respectively, the Bank of America cut its adjusted net profit estimates for JD.com on higher consumer incentives and food-delivery losses.

HSBC, meanwhile, has said that JD's 2026 outlook likely remains challenging but noted that the company’s overall margin could improve in 2026 due to reduced losses from food delivery and more targeted spending on overseas expansion.

The firm added that while the continuation of China's consumer-goods trade-in policy in 2026 should support the Chinese e-commerce company's revenue, a high base of comparison and the fulfillment of some demand under last year's program will likely dampen overall growth prospects.

What Is Retail Thinking?

Retail sentiment on JD.com dipped to ‘bearish’ from ‘neutral’ territory a day ago, with message volumes at ‘high’ levels, according to data from Stocktwits.

Retail investors are noting widespread market manipulation, with many alleging that the makers could be trying to keep the share price low before an options expiry.

The retail message volume on JD.com on Stocktwits jumped over 485% in the last seven days, and the ticker saw a 7% spike in followers over the past year on the platform.

Shares of JD.com have declined more than 27% in the last 12 months, while Alibaba’s shares have gained more than 78% and Baidu’s stock has jumped over 70% during the same period.

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