Goldman Sachs Says Rate Hike ‘Unlikely’ In September – Would It Be Good For Bitcoin?

During the July meeting, the FOMC held rates steady for the fifth consecutive time, leaving them at the same level since the December rate cut.

• Goldman's Jan Hatzius said weaker retail sales, jobs, and inflation data made a September rate increase “very unlikely.”
• CME FedWatch tool showed odds of a September hike fell to 30.6% from 52.2% a week earlier, with a hold at 3.50%-3.75% now priced at 69.4%.
• Bitcoin returned roughly 170% during the Fed's 2019 rate-hike pause, but every 2026 rate hold has been followed by declines.

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered on Monday after slipping below $63,000 over the weekend, with retail traders now looking to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting in September as the next catalyst. According to Goldman Sachs (GS), a hike is “very unlikely.”

According to a Bloomberg report, Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a note published on Sunday that underwhelming employment figures, cooling inflation prints, and weaker retail sales have taken a September rate hike off the table. The economist added that the bank continued to view market pricing for the funds as too hawkish and that inflation news was more likely to keep improving than to worsen as the year progressed.

Last week, data showed that the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% year over year, while core CPI came in at 2.5%, which has given policymakers additional cover to stand pat on Sept. 16.

During the July meeting, the FOMC held rates steady for the fifth consecutive time, leaving them at the same level since the December rate cut.

What Happens To Bitcoin?

In a February 2023 staff study for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, economists Gianluca Benigno and Carlo Rosa examined the token’s moves in 30-minute windows around policy announcements and data releases between 2017 and 2022 and found that Bitcoin was “orthogonal to monetary and macroeconomic news.” 

Bitcoin, unlike gold, stocks, and other currencies, did not have a statistically significant reaction to surprise changes in the Fed funds goal. Its response to signals about the future path of policy did not hold throughout the robustness checks in the study. 

The only release to have a statistically meaningful influence on the token was the consumer price index. If that pattern continues, September’s decision would register as a volatility event, rather than a directional catalyst, with the market’s interpretation on the road to ultimate cuts doing the real work.

Markets Dial Back Hike Bets

CME FedWatch data showed that markets are at a 69.4% probability of holding a 3.50% to 3.75% rate and over a 30% chance of a quarter-point hike, with zero odds of a rate cut. According to a Goldman Sachs report, the bank believes a rate cut in 2026 can likely be expected at the end of the year, in December.

When looking back at the rate hold of 2019, Bitcoin returned around 170% from its cycle low of $13,880, according to macro research analyst Markus Thielen. “However, if growth concerns drive the cut, either in September or later, Bitcoin might face significant selling pressure,” the analyst told Coindesk. 

BTC climbed 19% in the week following the July 2019 rate cut, fell flat two weeks later, and lost a third of its value in the second half of that year.

The Anomaly

However, the 2025 rate change pause under then-Fed Chair Jerome Powell was choppier. The Fed held at 4.25% to 4.50% for five straight meetings before cutting in September 2025, after which Bitcoin ended the month modestly higher. However, another factor during the 2025 rate hold was the tariff-driven slump towards $75,000 in April, after which Bitcoin saw its all-time high above $126,000 in October. 

As of mid-2026, Bitcoin has fallen after eight of the last nine Fed decisions, dropping an average of around 11% in the week that followed. Every rate hold this year has been met with further price decline, leaving the asset near $63,000, almost half of its October 2025 peak.

Bitcoin’s price was trading at around $63,600, up over 1% in the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, BTC was one of the top trending cryptocurrencies. Retail sentiment around the apex cryptocurrency improved to ‘bearish’ from the ‘extremely bearish’ zone, accompanied by ‘normal’ levels of chatter over the past day. 

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